After a three wave pattern for wave 'X' AUDCAD is expected to make a move below 0.9150. We see a bearish impulse in progress and selling after a consolidation is what we should do. However the structure for wave (c) is complex and might turn into an ending diagonal indicating a last leg higher is needed before price will break below 0.9150. (alternative wave count (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v)). Short term this would not change a thing and once this bearish move progresses we will be better able to determine what to expect next.
Updates will follow
Komen
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It seems like AUDCAD is correcting the strong bearish move of last week. But focusing on the bearish impulse I see three fractals at the moment which are almost perfect. This means that depending on what's next AUDCAD might not be ready yet for a bearish trend. In my original post I described two scenario's. Either way I will be looking for a sell once this consolidation is complete. This will most likely either be a wave 5 or wave C lower. For now I like to see the consolidation mature before selling the continuation. The arrows are only an indication and not showing expected future price patterns.
Komen
Ranothil
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Hi Tim, ok what I am seeing is that we broke down from 4h corrective uptrend and we are now in consolidation. 1.0063 is the .618 of the corrective structure high, market is currently testing this level. Since the market broke down sharply from 4H corrective uptrend; why do you think it has now been consolidating for two days? Do you think it is likely to rejoin corrective uptrend for some time; or sell off? Just trying to understand these structures :D
TimStuyts
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@Ranothil, it is important to understand that the Forex market tend to trend 30% of the time and correct 70% of the time (moves sideways). When looking at structure and the fractal nature of it, traders should realize the importance of the horizontal scale of the data. Time is more relevant than price because Forex is a relative game between two parties (countries). Extreme moves always need to correct but in general it goes in a more controlled way which means more sideways price action than strong trends (time wise). There are several reasons for that which I will explain later on by means of my website. Nevertheless key is that you spotted the impulse and correction. Next step is to understand when a correction is likely over or gives you the opportunity to trade with a small risk and most often also gives you the opportunity to bring stop to break even before structure shows us that the correction will take a bit longer and moves against the trend again.
Mr-Iaco
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HI tim Excuse ignorance but I am still a beginner about elliott wave and I read that one of principle elliot wave's rule are the low of Wave 4 cannot exceed the high of Wave 1, while in this chart I see that this happens. Can you explain me why? is it an exception?
Thanks in advance :)
TimStuyts
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@7TheWolf, I counted it as an ending diagonal were wave 4 is allowed to move in the price territory of wave 1. I agree the wave count isn't pretty and I keep an open mind for other scenario's. Bigger picture however seems very clear.
Mr-Iaco
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@TimStuyts thanks for having clarified the ideas. Anyway I think that you alternative wave count ((i),(ii),ecc..) for the formation of wave c is that right. We'll see.
Have a nice weekend