We return to this pair chart anew, looking at a geometric cycle completion of 2 Geo's:
In essence, a rally to the 1-4 Line of the Geo is called for, based on the concomitant completion of a Geo (Black) within a Geo (Blue).
CONDITIONS:
1 - AGGRESSIVE: Look for a slight retracement to the 78.619/78.139 range -- INVALIDATION: BACA < 77.582
2 - CONSERVATIVE: A break out to the topside of the 77.582/82.428 range -- CONFIRMATION: BACA > 82.428
3 - TARGETING the 1-4 Line for partial profit ... Consideration of the 1-3 Line validation off of Point-2 (top dashed line in faint blue) IF price remains above the BLUE 1-4 Line and below the BLACK 1-4 Line.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
Targets defined by Predictive/Forecasting Model are as follows:
What a gem of a trade idea! Thank you for sharing David.
ChetanFX
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Hi David Any updates on this?
4xForecaster
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Watch for price temporarily seeking support near 82.45 ... Lofty target of 88.4 remains intact, though.
David
ChetanFX
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So downside looks over for now?
4xForecaster
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@ChetanFX - I got out then shorted at EW's Pt-4 (Elliott Wave strategic principle), then exited the short and re-entered at the validation of the lesser geometry (structural strategic principle) ... See RED and GREEN arrows, respectively:
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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The intent of the short was based on the expectation that rising price will meet significant resistance at the lesser degree of EW's Wave-4 origin ... All this occurred while the Predictive/Forecasting Model remained BULLISH ... I let price fall with a loose SL, and determined that the lesser geometry would probably offer a structural support (i.e.: at the upper-side of the 2-4 Line in BLACK) for a high-probability (i.e.: Model's directional signal) rally.
This is a step-by-step analysis which is also supported by the larger (BLUE) geometry (GEO) which is also expecting a rallying, congruent with the Model's directional signal.
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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Note also that the HIGHEST-PROBABILITY target is the one I mentioned, resting at 88.40 (not shown in the chart), which would be defined as a Quantitative Target, but the Qualitative Targets, defined as TG-Hi and TG-Hix are the ones I would expect to be reached, even though by definition the QUANT-Targets have a greater probability of attainment than the QUAL-Targets.
David
ChetanFX
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Amazing work David. This pair is going nicely. Can you please advise on CADJPY as well? Your analysis is really helping me a lot. Thank You.
FXCM
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thanks for sharing, I agree with your bullish view on it as well:
alekkulik
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as always, super long term goal! we must pay tribute to your calculations.