What we are seeing play out here is a VERY LARGE diagonal. Remember that this pair is in a corrective phase that is following a HUGE impulse wave down. This corrective phase has only lasted 2 years whereas that impulsive phase lasted for 4 years and 5 months. What we do know is that corrective phases last on an order of about twice as long as impulsive phases if not longer. So we can assume that this correction is far from being over! That being the case, this tells us what we should be looking for is wave counts that support the fact that the correction is ongoing and that we should not be looking for a resumption of that overall down trend anytime soon.
That's the basis for the way I see this correction playing out. And thus why my projections favor more...MUCH MORE move to the upside coming! And according to my prediction, that VERY VERY LARGE move will probably commence sometime this year. Maybe late 2nd to 3rd quarter.
So what I am counting here is that the overall wave C of (4) has already started and the waves W and X of that C have already completed with wave X having hit the bottom of this diagonal and bounced as you see what just happened. This current wave up is just the initial move up of that wave C of (4). A wave (1) of C most likely though I've yet to label it as so.
This analysis is being provided here as an educational post and is a preview of my soon-to-be-released 2018 Guide To The Forex Markets.