EverythingForex

QUICK UPDATE: AUDUSD - Sell Now? Nope! Better Know The Count!

FX:AUDUSD   Dolar Australia/Dolar U.S
1223 7 42
Time and time again, I see traders trading not knowing where prices are and what is the probability of success. This is where knowing the wave count is a MUST! Without it, you are only seeing half the picture and basically trading blind! You see, wave counting is like a roadmap to where prices are going. Just like when you are driving, if you don't know where you are going and more importantly how to get there, then you are basically lost! Yes, I know we've got GPS             to guide us now! So maybe you can say wave counting is like a trading GPS! Read it properly and it can tell you when to turn and when to go straight! Without it, you are driving blind hoping to bump into road signs that might tell you where to go. How to plan a trade properly without knowing what might to expect?

Here is a case in point. I see some of you trying to SELL now on structure! Ask yourself. Are you selling on structure thinking to gain a few small pips on a rejection? Or are you trying to sell thinking to get in on the main downtrend? What is it doing right now? Is it correcting the main downtrend right now? If so, how long do you expect the correction to last and how far will it correct? You don't have a clue? Then how do you expect to win the trade?

Ok, full disclosure. I AM SHORT on this pair right now since last year! Yes, I have been holding a SHORT trade since Nov. 9th! Almost 2 months now! But currently, my members and I are up almost +400 pips on this trade and I am expecting MUCH MORE to come! So I am NOT against prices resuming the downtrend and falling! I WANT IT TO FALL! But I also know that it isn't going to just keep falling without correcting! Go look at my last post on this pair here:
But anyway, what I am showing you here in my chart is that this is currently in a pullback correction and headed higher probably back into the .73200 level where both a POTENTIAL Bat and a POTENTIAL Crab will have both been filled. This pullback is only PART of the larger wave (3) down so that means that the bigger downtrend is NOT DONE according to wave count and knowing this is only a correction, you should look for a sell BUT NOT RIGHT NOW! Me? I'm holding onto my SHORT position and my members and I will be cashing out hundreds of pips when this downtrend is all said and done!
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Based on Market Profile (volumes) and Price Action there is very strong swing support at 0.7246. There was about 2 week rotation where the big players accumulated their long trades and then moved the price agressively higher. You Can see this strong trading activity even on yearly volume profile!
If the price comes back to 0.7246 I think that the agressive buyers will come again and push the price higher once more.
Here is my analysis:
Balas
it is now near the trend,do you think it is going to break it ? ??
Balas
EverythingForex EsmailBoumrah
@EsmailBoumrah, don't take my response as being critical of your question but what everyone needs to understand before they can even start to be successful is that you can't trade on what you THINK is going to happen. You TRADE WHAT YOU SEE! So my answer is: I don't know. I will watch and wait and see what the chart and my analysis tells me to do. We can only ever trade on probability because there is no such thing as a SURE TRADE! Anything can happen in the markets and usually does. Murphy's Law usually applies. So when the chart shows me bearish PA and gives me a sell setup....IF it gives it to me at this juncture, then it's a high probability trade and I would take it. But again, I don't need to do anything as I am ALREADY SHORT from 2 months ago and holding that trade.
Balas
EsmailBoumrah EverythingForex
@EverythingForex, Think you,you're great.in my opinion this is a potential bullish cypher pattern,but do you think this is a correct XA leg that i choosed? ??
Balas
EverythingForex EsmailBoumrah
@EsmailBoumrah, It is technically a correct bullish cypher BUT take care though that IMO, it is not a STRONG cypher. And the C point is not yet confirmed as prices can still head higher, PA has NOT confirmed that the top is in. Now let me explain just a little about why I say this is not a STRONG cypher. For ANY pattern to be strong, the X origination point must be at some SIGNIFICANT level and not just randomly placed anywhere just so the fib ratios "FIT" the pattern! If you do that, then you have a WEAK pattern. This is a WEAK cypher pattern. Can it still work out? Yes, it could. But don't expect too many WEAK patterns to convert.

Let me explain a little further about what is meant by "conversion". NO PATTERN actually exists here! Conversion DOES NOT MEAN the pattern completing! Harmonic patterns are NOT patterns until the are completed! Here, there is NO cypher pattern in actuality! You are simply trying to justify selling. Yes, I do trade the CD leg of patterns MANY, MANY times but I do that with the FULL knowledge that I'm NOT trading the pattern itself! The highly touted conversion ratio of harmonic patterns ONLY APPLIES to completed patterns. Also, I rarely if ever trade the CD leg of cyphers. I wait for cyphers to complete to trade them.
Balas
Love your speech :D
Happy New Year mate
+1 Balas
Hi, if it breaks above (critcal zone), does that mean there will be more upside?
Balas
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