This pair has now done a retest of the lows. Typically, when there is a major reversal, this is what will typically happen. The lows will get retested usually to what I refer to as the "Goldilocks Zone" which is between .681 and the .886 retrace of the initial move away from the low/high. Of course in this case, the lows. This also triggered the ".786 trade" setup.
Also, according to my wave count, the initial move up was a 5-wave pattern. In my overall wave count, I am projecting this move up as a wave (4). Judging by the initial wave up being a 5-wave move, it could be that the wave (4) will unfold as a 5-3-3 ABC zigzag pattern with this new move up being another 5-waves. So if buying now, it could be that we would catch the very beginning of the next 5 waves up.
While still too early to be able to say with any certainty, there looks to be a POSSIBLE POTENTIAL bearish bat setting up with it's C point yet to be confirmed. If so, then the completion of the bat could be the end of wave (4) and then we will see a wave (5) down into new lows.
MY TRADE PLAN I am already in long @0.69554 which was the .707 retrace. In addition, I am holding LONGS per a previous trade entry (see Related Ideas: "TRADE: AUDUSD: BUY@0.69170 LONG On Shark + Cypher"). I will be holding these LONGS for the completion of the bat.
*DISCLAIMER: Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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Could wave 5 have arrived and truncated? Or is this a very long wave iv of wave 3?
EverythingForex
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not likely. It is only consolidating right now around the B point line I have on the chart. truncated wave 5's usually only happen around overheated markets. This is not the case here.
vaporize
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Nice trade
EverythingForex
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thanks. but it's not over yet! still more upside.
HaroMaster
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At what point, would you consider a major trend reversal to be confirmed? (I'm new to this..) Thanks
EverythingForex
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I would need to see bullish price action on the monthly TF to confirm a MAJOR TREND REVERSAL. Assuming you are referring to the main trend and not the sub-trends within the main trend.
HaroMaster
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Yep, the main trend. I look forward to your confirmation :) (and thanks for putting the effort in for us, as a 'noob' to this I absolutely appreciate you efforts!)
EverythingForex
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You're welcome. Good to know I'm appreciated and even better to know I've helped. But don't hold your breath on seeing that reversal. My previous posts and my wave count suggests that we should see 60-62 cents before we may see any reversal.
TTCSteve
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Thanks EverythingForex...I have the same count as my Alt which the 72 area may help clarify. My main count has this as bottom of v of 5 and either starting a larger wave 4 higher (80 area targets), or the large triple zigzag Z leg, which started back in 2001 approx and targets towards 120 over time.