ICmarkets

Thoughts on the Aussie dollar this morning...

FX:AUDUSD   Dolar Australia/Dolar U.S
After a somewhat aggressive retest of December’s opening level seen on the H4 timeframe at 0.7562 amid early London hours, the pair drove skywards. The first round of buying appeared to be on the back of disappointing US inflation figures, which lifted the commodity currency up to the 0.76 handle. A few hours later, the dollar sustained further losses after the Fed cranked up its benchmark interest rates to 1.50%, elevating the Aussie to highs of 0.7639. Dollar losses, from our point of view, can be attributed to a dovish Yellen at the final scheduled press conference.

After clearing the 0.76 handle, the pair had a relatively clear run up to 0.7639: a H4 Quasimodo resistance level , which, as you can see, is currently doing a fine job in holding back the buyers. From a technical standpoint, sellers may struggle to secure this line since daily buyers may be targeting the daily supply zone printed above it at 0.7695-0.7657.

In addition to this, we must also remember that this week’s upside was likely aided by the daily support at 0.7505 and the weekly channel support extended from the low 0.6827(merges closely with a weekly 50.0% value at 0.7475 taken from the high 0.8125, and a nice-looking weekly AB=CD 161.8% Fib ext. point situated at 0.7496). Both levels were highlighted as clean support areas to keep an eyeball on in previous reports.

Direction:

• Long: Ultimately, further buying is still likely on the cards, despite H4 price currently finding resistance beneath the aforementioned Quasimodo. A push above this line, however, would not be considered a buy signal since H4 price would then be within striking distance of the noted daily supply and also November’s opening level seen on the H4 timeframe at 0.7659.

• Short: A sell from November’s opening level could be an option today, given that it is sited around the lower edge of the aforesaid daily supply (placing stops beyond this base may also be an option). Be that as it may, shorting from this region will place you in direct conflict with potential weekly buying, so trade cautiously!

Data points to consider: US retail sales m/m and weekly unemployment claims at 1.30pm GMT             .

Areas worthy of attention:

Supports: weekly channel support extended from the low 0.6827; weekly AB=CD 161.8% Fib ext. point situated at 0.7496; 07505; 0.76 handle.
Resistances: 0.7639; 0.7659; 0.7695-0.7657.


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