monkia

BCHUSD - 5000 by early January - Big leg 3 of bigger leg 3

BITFINEX:BCHUSD   Bitcoin Cash / Dollar
Looking at the bottom 1 day chart, you can see that leg 2 of the primary EW (black line) ended on 8 Dec. That leg contained a smaller set of 5 waves (orange) which you can clearly see finished the primary 2 leg off.

From there, the 4 hour chart shows that we have completed two legs of a smaller wave (purple) which in itself contained a 5+ABC wave.

This means we are in the big leg 3 (purple) of the massive leg 3 (black). We know that the third legs are the most powerful, so if we take a measurement off their respective 1st legs we get an indication of where each should end up.

The 1 day chart shows the purple arrow starting on the 18 Dec which matches trajectory and size of its leg 1. That takes us to 3000 easily enough, but we should increase it as its a bigger leg to around 4000 by the end of Dec.

The 1 day chart also shows the black arrow starting 8 Dec, also matching the trajectory and size of its first leg. That takes us to around 4000 near the end of Dec - matching the smaller purple wave. This then needs extending and encompasses leg 4 and 5 of the purple wave to get us to around 5000 in early January.

I think the waves are pretty clear and ok to buy now or on a slight pull back. However the 1 hour chart shows how we can confirm the breakout of this leg 3 (purple). We are in a consolidating triangle (blue top and green bottom) with a breakout above the blue line close. The Yellow triangle around 1900 will confirm the breakout for sure.

Stop loss (red box) can be below the old resistance turned support from the previous consolidating triangle at around 1550.

Take profit options
Top of 'non-enlarged' leg 3 of purple : 3000
Top of enlarged leg 3 of purple and 'non-enlarged' leg 3 of black : 4000
Top of enlarged leg 3 of black : 5250


Summary
Entry: Now or wait for 1900
Stop Loss : 1550
Take profit : 3000, 4000, 5250

Buy the news
Coinbase has signalled that it will start to include additional coins for trading. It has already committed to allowing its users access to BCH by 1 January. My guess, although unconfirmed, is that they will allow trading on this coin from that date. Some are concerned about a dump of coins once CB             opens access to its coins, but my feeling is that this is already priced in and those that left their coins of CB             in the first place are more likely long term holds.
Perdagangan aktif: Breakout confirmed
Komen: We are at the 2000 mark. Other analysis suggest this as a take profit area. If we can break through this, maybe 2150, then I think we'll get to the 3000 mark pretty quickly. Otherwise, expect some side ways channel for a small period of time before we get the next impulse up.
Komen: We recently broke the soft diagonal resistance line from yesterday's high. More interestingly is if we break the top of the sideways trading channel.

snapshot


I'd hold out to see what BTC is doing over the next couple of hours before making any moves to buy in more.

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Komen: I might be saying this too early, but it looks like BTC is bouncing back. BCH has held its own over the last 12 hours, breaking through the blue resistance at 2200 to hit a new ATL at 2400. It then entered a brief reversal which bounced back on the demand zone at the bottom of the trading channel (green line). All indicators looking bullish.

snapshot
Komen: Confirmation that coinbase will allow customers to trade BCH:
https://blog.coinbase.com/buy-sell-send-and-receive-bitcoin-cash-on-coinbase-65f1b2c7214b
Komen: We've got through the potential collapse because of the opening of CB coins. Forget BTCUSD, watch BCHBTC to know what is happening. This is meeting the upper end of its trading range from the past 24 hours. Will it break up or accept the wave back down? I have no idea! Watch for the signal and do what the market says. Somewhere around 2.65 says, it's a new break.

snapshot
Komen: p.s. the fact that Coinbase has not opened BCH to the general public makes me bullish. It is only tradeable on GDax. Most of my mates have no idea what GDax is. But ignore that, do what the market says!

Break through at the blue (2.65) : Buy
Down at the blue : Sell
Sideways : wait for a break out (I'll update this commentary)
Komen: BCH is still in the major 3rd of 5 waves (black line) and, depending on your view, is in the consolidation of the minor wave 4 of 5 (purple) or has just entered the upward 5th wave (purple). This phase obviously took longer than expected, I put this mainly down to the uncertainty over the coinbase activation (still only on GDax) .

I've started loading up on this over the past few days with the expectation that we will come out of this consolidation phase and the coinbase listing will create the impetus for the continuation of the major 3rd wave (black line) and entry into 5th minor wave.

Target $6k by end of Jan

snapshot
BCH is still in the major 3rd of 5 waves (black line) and, depending on your view, is in the consolidation of the minor wave 4 of 5 (purple) or has just entered the upward 5th wave (purple). This phase obviously took longer than expected, I put this mainly down to the uncertainty over the coinbase activation (still only on GDax) .

I've started loading up on this over the past few days with the expectation that we will come out of this consolidation phase and the coinbase listing will create the impetus for the continuation of the major 3rd wave (black line) and entry into 5th minor wave.

Target $6k by end of Jan

snapshot
Balas
A sign of times to come? BCH hit $9k within 4 mins of opening on CB. CB haulted trading until 9am 20th Dec to allow liquidity to develop.

https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-halts-bitcoin-cash-trading-abruptly-exchange-launch/
Balas
Some good consolidation in a trading channel before the next impulse wave up - maybe to coincide with coinbase allowing trading today/tomorrow ?
Balas
But none of your analysis considers BTCs pricing and affect on BCH. It seems that for now BCH is 10% of BTCs price more or less, for BCH to break out of that mental trading hold it will take more then CB listing in my opinion, all efforts on major runs get stopped instantly with BTC push or immediate selling wall BCH runs into. I am hopeful your analysis plays out, just do not see it unless BTC is 50,000. Can you comment on the BTC affect given your analysis?
Balas
monkia PRO MarcKevinSwickle
@MarcKevinSwickle, good point. It certainly does require a breakout from BTC. You can see on 13 Dec it started to break out (leg 1) from the channel that has been in place since 12 Nov.
https://i.imgur.com/ENCPBgL.png . It has undergone some short term consolidation (leg 2) and could be poised for another break which could put it into leg 3. This leg 3 could be reinforced by the Coinbase listing.
Balas
@monkia, TY , agreed!
Balas
@monkia, IS this a decent chart for BCHBTC?
snapshot
Balas
Gooood analis..!!!
Balas
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