If the ratio between ATH is decreasing by a half, then i can predict the next ATH ... just math!
For this theorie, i just looked at the decreasing of percent for each all time high to the next one.
This is like x 64 ... x 32 ... x 16 (but not so accurate)
We saw a major bullrun from 0.39 USD to round about 30 USD ( ~ 77x ) We saw the next ATH at 1 143 USD ( ~ 38 x ) We saw the last ATH at 19 417 USD ( ~ 17 x )
The multiplication is cut in half each time. Because of this i predict the next 2 ATH just by using simple math:
19 417 x 8 = 155 336 USD 155 336 x 4 = 621 344 USD
In the chart, the values are not perfect because of scale, but i think you get the point ;-)
No financial advice! I just want to leave it here and visit in 2021 and 2025 :-)
Komen
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Time based, my first green arrow was pretty accurate. Price based, ich could "cheat" and just say: Look again at the green arrow. Perfect touch :D
Price of 150k is in play, this will not change. But maybe we have to accept, that time base also increases a lot. We have to wait.
I fully agree with your approach.
Combine that with halving events and you might predict the time scale.
I also agree with the assumptions that you make:
- using a logarithmic chart is IMHO the correct choice to represent long term charts
- the waves become shallower as the coin matures
- the ratios of ATHs shrink over time: 2011-2013: 33x, 203-2017: 20x, 2017-2021/2022: 10x? 12x?
- the ratios of long term lows shrink over time: 2011-2015: 100x, 2015-2018: 16x, 2018-2023: 8x?
- the band between lows and highs narrows as the coin matures (013: 30x, 2017: 20x, 2021: 12x?)
I think it's time to post an updated chart.
Caveat: As soon as a price move becomes predictable it's gonna change.
Crypto-Coin-Trader
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@Karsten-S, thx for that! No need to update this one. We can see in nov/dec of this year if my price target is valid and also my time prediction.
If you want to see shorter time frames, look at my page. There are more ideas. But i only post every 2-3 month or so. Just if i have something important to say.
suvny21
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you are a genius!
Crypto-Coin-Trader
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@santana2331, thx mate! Let´s wait and see, if it's enough to get the nobel prize :-D
yozr23361
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great insight! very interesting..
Crypto-Coin-Trader
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@ali_1673, thx!
Around december, we should see if i was right. At least in terms of timing.
yozr23361
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@Crypto-Coin-Trader, your calculations are sync with PlanB S2F model we must see 147k by December
Mrn1995
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I think base of this idea completely comes from Supply and Demand chart and have scientific background .
But we found it as a simple multiply numbers .
Due to the changes in the supply and demand chart in different intervals and due to its relationship with other parameters, it can not be expected to act on its previous sequence.
so maybe we can not see exactly these numbers .
CryptoEngineering
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About 90–95% of the traders /investors CONSISTENTLY lose money on Crypto Market either in a bull or bear market. This is a well-known and publicized statistic.And it’s true!
Crypto-Coin-Trader
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@CryptoEngineering, true words. Your chart looking quite bullish too. On the long run, iám really confident with Bitcoin rise, but if someone uses future / leverage trading... he or she should be very careful!
Combine that with halving events and you might predict the time scale.
I also agree with the assumptions that you make:
- using a logarithmic chart is IMHO the correct choice to represent long term charts
- the waves become shallower as the coin matures
- the ratios of ATHs shrink over time: 2011-2013: 33x, 203-2017: 20x, 2017-2021/2022: 10x? 12x?
- the ratios of long term lows shrink over time: 2011-2015: 100x, 2015-2018: 16x, 2018-2023: 8x?
- the band between lows and highs narrows as the coin matures (013: 30x, 2017: 20x, 2021: 12x?)
I think it's time to post an updated chart.
Caveat: As soon as a price move becomes predictable it's gonna change.