itzbert
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BRAZILS STRETCHED RISK PREMIUM MAKES FOR "REAL" LONG OPPORTUNITY

FX_IDC:BRLCOP   BRAZILIAN REAL / COLOMBIAN PESO
BRAZILS RISK PREMUM IS STRETCHED
See "Summary Statistics" in doc below
https://www.bcb.gov.br/pre/evento/arquivos/XSemRiscosBCB/Quinta/JoseRenato.pdf

BRL's risk premium (currently highest across EM peers) looks stretched, given a continued pick- up in growth and reducing near-term political risk. COP's recent rally was likely driven mainly by a reversal of heavy short positioning, without a material shift in the country's economic and political outlook. Recent data releases showed that 2017 exhibited the slowest annual growth since the 2009 crisis (1.8%Y) and growth should remain sluggish in 2018, at 2.3%Y. Uncertainty about the upcoming elections poses an additional challenge for the investment outlook, given that implementing structural reforms could be key to helping to correct the fiscal deficit.

The risk to this trade is that Colombia's economic data surprise to the upside, leading to further appreciation in the currency.
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