As I've mentioned in previous ideas, Brazil tends to over shoot targets in both directions. As we were trading ATH's, the Brazilian market was trading with a 20% premuim. It's possible with a major correction that this premium completely reverses and we see prices anywhere as low as 5-10% cheaper than US exchanges. Many professional traders are calling a 3k USD psychological floor on this bear run. That would be equivalent to ~9.400 BRL . If Brazil manages to bottom out at 5% below US prices, we could see a 8.900 BRL bottom.
Based on the charts, I've put together a on the weekly candles. According to the , we should bottom out at ~10.240 BRL , which coincides with a 61.8% fib retrace. However, if this support is broken, the next according to the charts coincides with the scenario mentioned above at ~8.900 BRL .
It might be possible therefore to lowball some limit orders just under 9k BRL for a nice re-entry. Needless to say, everyone should be in fiat right now. We're in a strong downward spiral with more FUD to come so it's difficult to pick the bottom. Good luck every one!
1. OkCoin and Huobi exchanges still set to shut down (possibly today)
2. Apparently Chinese exchanges can still technically function crypto-to-crypto
So we have a mix of bear and bull news. The overshoot to the downside didn't pan out. We could reverse as high as 23.6% fib (~15.000) before meeting resistance again.
Will be interesting to see if this reversal holds. Volume supports it. The low might have been in.