Bitcoin will take 2017 with storm. The fundamentals is definitely there, and we have a perfect cup & handle in the making.Final Target - 11,000 CNY.
Fundamentals:
Europe Big political and economic uncertantity in Europe after events like Brexit and the Italian referendum. There's a populist anti-establishment wave going on in Europe and that's really bad for the EU (Positive for Bitcoin though). Italy might see the 5 star movement in office after Renzi's defeat. But more important, France is holding election next year and the far right candidate Marine Le Pen is at 40% today. Given the trend that's going on in Europe, there is a big possibility of a Le Pen victory.
Banking Sector We are seeing weak banks all around and a bank crisis in the near future is not out of the question. A little while ago we saw Deutsche Bank struggle, and though it's going better right now for the bank, the future may not. Right now Dei Paschi (biggest Italian bank) is in the spotlight. They will likely need a bail-out. If not, and the bank collapses, it would drag others with it down the drain. Goverments will keep doing what they can to rescue their banks from going under, but remember, one collaps could trigger the "rest". There may come a domino effect and boom we have a bank crisis on our hands. Sitting in Bitcoin sounds pretty good in the case of these events, compared to fiat, right?
Donald Trump Big money is welcoming a Trump presidency with an open heart (well, for now atleast). We are seeing ATH's all around and a bullish perspective on the US economy with Trump as president. But we dont' buy it, not for a single second. Donald Trump is a terrible businessman. He may be good at making a profit when he takes advantage of the laws and screws everybody over and some may call that a good businessman, but those business tactics will be terrible for the US economy. And though big money is welcoming him, we believe most are afraid and the ATH's we are seeing is just for the smart money to exit. Remember this? http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/11/01/prominent-economists-including-eight-nobel-laureates-do-not-vote-for-donald-trump/ Trump presidency is also bullish for Bitcoin because Trump himself should have a positive view on the currency. You would atleast think so even though he has never expresses his opinion on the matter.
That's the big things, but overall there is a significant amount of positive fundamentals for Bitcoin. To give a few more:
India Rupee Restriction Gives Bitcoin a Boost. India may be the next reason for a BTC pump. Narendra is taking the 500 & 1000 bills out of the economy and making people in India to flock towards Bitcoin. We are seeing huge premiums on India's exchanges.
Bitcoin Demand Seen Rise as Chine Restricts Gold-Importation. China is now trying even harder to keep the capital inside it's borders. Restricting the chinese from gold will drive more people to Bitcoin as an alternative. Mostly gone unoticed, but we see this as a huge bullish signal.
When I published this idea the Chinese was the leading market for Bitcoin. That is not the case anymore and a lot of stuff has happened since my prediction. Fortunately for me I am from the west and have never used Chinese exchanges, so I have seen a lot more growth then my chart would suggest. Chinese exchanges has halted withdrawals for a long time and are now way behind pricewise!
Today I am closing my BTC long because there is way to much uncertantity around Bitcoin. We have Bitfinex 100 USD over the rest because of banking issues, and China 200 USD behind. Bitcoin is still stuck with scaling problems and I see no solution in the short term.
Don't get me wrong, I am still highly bullish on BTC and there is popping up a lot of good news for the currency. I just don't see any upside before we have more clarification on the Bitfinex, Chinese Exchanges & Scaling issues that we are currently facing.
This trade has however been very succesful and for the short term I am retiring as a bull with a smile on my face.
Buy In - 750 USD Sell Out - 1240 USD Profit - 39.50%
Last year i wrote my bachelor thesis about bitcoin price estimation, so i just about read all the public research on the topic. none of the fundementals you mention really matter for bitcoin, biggest changes in bitcoin are caused by how many people adopt to it or leave it due to regulations. the largest volume/amount of bitcoin is in hands of the chinese ( or parties trading it on chinese based) but even so bitcoin isn't the largest alternative currency in china. furthermore till june 2015 there was no evidence of bitcoin being a safehaven, nor was it correlated with safe havens like gold or inflation corrected bonds in periods of high risk in the stock market. the other sources are good news for bitcoin. look out for mystery bots bumping up the price overtime again though ^^
Kryptokelly
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@MichaldeW, So you are saying that a bank crisis would not affect Bitcoin? It would. It's a market and it will be affected by whats happening in the world.
MichaldeW
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@Kryptokelly, im saying that given past results (brexit, grexit and QE versus CBORC diciding against bitcoin and later easing up to bitcoin),and under 'normal' market conditions, i would not expect bitcoin to become a safe haven as it wasnt in the past. with normal referring to no sudden collapse of deutche bank and alike.
MichaldeW
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@Kryptokelly, check 'What Does Crypto-currency Look Like? Gaining Insight into Bitcoin Phenomenon' by Bouoiyour 2014 it has got the best econometric model in my opinion regarding research on this topic.
Young_Satoshi
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Nice.. Thanks for posting.
Doc-al-Citadel
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good, but now do the same analysis for bch and 2018 and u'll have been right two years in a row ;-) also i think you're very wrong about btg...
diederikdehaas
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What made you not choose the jun 2016 high as the right-top cup part, with the correction that followed as the handle and the action in end october/begin november as the outbreak (under huge volume)?
Kryptokelly
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@diederikdehaas, Good question! Because the breakout was to weak in my opinion, so I extended the pattern. It still might break hard upwards and complete the cup and handle you decribed. Time will tell :)
And on the volume note.. The chinese exchanges are heavily manipulated. I don't really put much faith in those numbers. And USD exchanges had relatively low volume.
diederikdehaas
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@Kryptokelly, there is indeed an argument to be made for considering the breakout to be too weak, I certainly expected the price movement to be bigger.
But if you look at the chart from BTCChina, aot OKCoin, then the increase in volume is impressive, reaching over 5m btc at one point. But upon closer inspection it looks like most of the volume was in the run up to 'my' breakout point and (a bit) less during and after.
Anyway, thanks for sharing and your response and I hope you're right as that means the target is higher ;-)