More evidence of China having a currency crisis that has yet to be reported in the main stream news outlets. This surge is a Black Swan event. US buyers have taken notice and volume is increasing on the BTCUSD side (circled). But, nowhere close to the volume seen at the launch of the current November rally (blue arrow).
In my last commentary which was one day prior to the Chinese led blastoff three weeks ago I could see nothing but weakness. Fundamentals have changed the technical analysis and I now see some strength. The time is right for a breakout relative to the crossing of two major trend lines, the Red line is real. The blue hash was calculated from Fibonacci analysis. And, certainly a breakout occurred. The next blue hash level may not be real resistance although it has been calculated as such. The energy from which it derives is the major blow off top that occurred in 2013. That energy may have dissipated to the point of irrelevance. That would mean that the current activity is going to lead to another blow off top. That top will be significantly higher than the current level. A BREXIT-yes will add to the energy as gold will become the strongest currency on the planet and all of Euroland will try to exit the Euro before it vaporizes.
I have seen speculation of BTC $1000. I think that if the Black Swans land, that estimate is small. We have seen the feet of one Chinese Black Swan touch the ground and look what happened. Two more swans and there might just be enough energy to achieve orbit.
That is the fundamental analysis. Technical analysis dictates moderation. The coming blue hash, if real, will be the end of this surge and a contraction to the red hash will result in wedging action which comes to an inflection point in October-November. Other than the red trend line there is no additional support at the $600 level. If there is a break in that support the next level down will be $450. On the upside the next level of resistance beyond the blue hash is in the $800 to $900 range.
The German bond has dropped to negative rates of return!!! Think about this. A hypothetical person would buy this bond assuming that their net worth is going to be higher at the bond maturity date knowing that the German government promises to pay them back minus a fee then their net worth would be just holding Euros or whatever for that same period.
Let's just pretend the Euro evaporates. Will the German government exist to pay back the bond? These people (both the buyers and the sellers) are terrified. They have become irrational with their (your) money. Will they become irrational with your life?
cnbc.com/2016/06/14/brexit-news-uncertainty-around-eu-vote-causing-volatility-in-markets.html
Let's just pretend the Euro evaporates. Will the German government exist to pay back the bond? These people (both the buyers and the sellers) are terrified. They have become irrational with their (your) money. Will they become irrational with your life?
theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/06/nato-launches-largest-war-game-in-eastern-europe-since-cold-war-anaconda-2016