I took the time to review every crash avaliable on TD with bitstamp exchange, since march 2015 on 4H, with the same methodology on each one:
Apply the circle fib on all extension of crash with the 1.618 level;
Apply standard Fibonacci to read the rebound;
Check position of inner 0.236 fib circle in relation to the center of the crash;
Check if crash is ABC or ABCDE;
Check duration of the crash;
So I got this:
March, August 2015:
November 2015, July 2016:
January, March, June 2017:
After checking how much it rebound inside the 1.618 Fib circle almost all ABCDE crashes rebound to 0.5 standard Fibonacci while one crash rebounded to the 0.786 and other to the 1.0 Fib. So based on this I think the most conservative and with higher probability is a rebound to the 0.5 Fib and them the market will keep swinging as always but outside the 1.618 circle Fib.
Komen
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Check my view for a larger BIG picture on related ideas or here:
thanks,, if you can plz let us know what is the price range if its wants to pull back?
bitcoin
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@SamTaheri, Our major support is our 0.236 Fib (9.2K) below this is BEAR market
SamTaheri
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@bitcoin, thanks for the answer, do you think we can go to bear market again to test lower than 9.2k ??
bitcoin
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@SamTaheri, for 2017 the 3 crashes it didn't go below the 0.236 Fib, market was operating in the "standard channel", on march and november 2015 market got a run below the 0.236 Fib, so there is a lot of variations, if it goes below 9.2K March 2015 could repeat, just look how the market swings there and this is a possibility. But on this crash every other thing is different, there is channel below us, the old channel, and a new channel might be forming with this recent low, you need to plot a montly log chart to see there is 4 channels, so if the market decides to go back to channel 1 we might revert everything but if decides to run inside channel 2, our current channel, market will just go on and might never get that low again. Both are possible, but first it needs to get below 9.2K, one step after another.
SamTaheri
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@bitcoin, thanks lot for your complete details and answer,, its so kind of you.