Going parabolic on a log scale isn't sustainable... where we pop, nobody knows.
surubuey
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@cwidmer743, asking from an ignorant point of view. Why will it pop? Which would be the detonating factors for the supposed bubble to pop?
DJPandaBites
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@surubuey, from a fundamental perspective in the crypto space, you have the USDTether/Bitfinex issues. Obvious wash trades on Bitfinex in this latest runup over 9k. Order book is showing it's hand that we're going to 10k, but doesn't look at all natural. From a more macro perspective, while I'm a huge believer in blockchain technology, coins/tokens really have no(or very little) value without a massive public ecosystem. BTC is BEGINNING to start an ecosystem (which LTC et al will have to latch onto to survive), but it's admittedly small and slow. Even then, the actual value of any coin/token is questionable without claim on future cashflows (either in the form of earnings or revenue).
With this in mind, cryptocurrencies are essentially "collectibles" at the present time. Digital baseball cards, if you will. If they want to be anything else (like an actual currency.. and I believe they can), they'll need AML/KYC standards and extensive regulation (likely new regulation which will take years to develop). Once regulated, the shady practices/pumping will cease. Result: CRASH -> then repump BTC/LTC/ETH and handful of others (many die off rest of coins likely stick around but hover around $0.000001 ... like zombie penny stocks).
Oh, and don't forget the massive supply/demand imbalance currently in the bulls favor. This balance will become more equalized once cash-settled futures begin trading. Bitcoin will begin to follow BTC futures, and they'll begin pegging the price as we see with most other financial instruments.
surubuey
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@cwidmer743, I don't think that USDTether will make the "bubble pop" just by itself, everyone agrees that is shady, I don't think any serious money would risk so much on it when you can trade with real USD in other exchanges. On the other two, I think you have a point.
What I don't agree totally is your statement that going "parabolic isn't sustainable". Maybe it can't be forever rising in log scale, but what if it's just speeding up to get to a more stable price and keeps growing at a more reasonable rate instead of poping? Wouldn't be more important than the shape of the curve, the aproximate target market capitalization of BTC, if it is 200billion, 1 trillion or 0 ? And when it will aproach this value?
BTC is starting to compete as a reserve of value and a means of exchange. Eventually BTC or other crypto will take a big percentage of the gold, USD, bonds market caps.
Nobody really knows but it's estimated that right know there are between 1.5 and 3 million people actively owning BTC, ¿what will happen when 100:, 500: or 1b do?
I'm not an analyst, nor I have invested lots in crypto, so is not wishful thinking. I just see, as lots of people do too, a big potential that is beyond trading analytics common sense.
Thanks!
DJPandaBites
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@surubuey, "BTC is starting to compete as a reserve of value and a means of exchange." I disagree. I don't see the "means of exchange" by any stretch. No one uses BTC as a currency. It's simply a speculative store of value at this point that is used to OBTAIN MORE FIAT. You only buy because you believe you can sell it higher later. No other realistic applications until atomic swaps become more prevalent (even then the value is suspect).
At the end of the day, BTC is a hedge as potential new asset class. However, this by definition means it will not overtake fiat as a "currency". I think we'll see more and more justification for the price increase.
"Nobody really knows but it's estimated that right know there are between 1.5 and 3 million people actively owning BTC" WAAAAAY more people own BTC than that... heck Coinbase has 20M users. You telling me that none of them own bitcoin?
When all the bears disappear and capitulate, this will collapse as per the normal bubble cycle. We're not too far off.