BTCUSD update: Sitting on the high, this market is still poised to go higher. There are two extensions to be aware of: 12400 and 14750.
The CBOE is aggressive and will have the futures trading in a matter of days followed by the CME shortly after. No one knows how they will affect this market, or the alts, we have no choice but to wait and see.
Meanwhile this market does not really retrace. It almost seems too easy: "just buy and you will make money", "it's different this time", etc. I don't like to be the one to burst people's "bubble" but it is not different this time. The Dot.com era offered the same promise, and it delivered on it's promise, the internet has dramatically shaped the future and has presented limitless opportunities, but the equity markets experienced two serious corrections since then and the majority of internet stocks that existed 20 years ago no longer exist.
I do not know when this market will experience that magnitude of correction. The scope of my analysis covers short term price action, and there is still no sign of weakness. There are two levels just above where price can potentially reverse, but that is no reason to get short. There is 12100 which is the upper boundary of the reversal zone measured from the 8821 low. There is the 12400 extension which is measured from the 5400 low and then there is the 14700 (1.618 extension) projected from the 8821 low.
14700? Proportionally that is a potential target for this market (doesn't mean it will get there right away). As far as support goes, 10700 is the active support for this market (.382 of recent bullish swing). At this point, unless you are trading small time frames, I am using a break of this level as a signal for coming weakness. The break would have to be significant (price will have to be trading back toward 10102). A break by 100 or 200 points is not very meaningful in this market. And for those itching to short, the best time to start looking for setups is the retrace AFTER that break (and I would also wait until the futures are trading since this market is severely skewed by the inability to short and Tether).
Until then, momentum and structure are aligned for higher prices. Now, I keep getting messages asking if this is a good time to invest. In my opinion, no. Short term trading is one thing, risk is defined by near by levels and the position can be exited for relatively smaller losses. Investing implies holding which opens you to a ton of risk and uncertainty. Why buy highs? ALL markets correct, why not wait? It is amazing how blind greed proliferates.
In summary, the kind of price action that is occurring in this market is very unusual. And for me is a red flag. There are a number of factors that can come together and change things quickly: the futures which will open this market to institutions and a more balanced ability to short, and the Tether situation. I do not mind buying into a strong market, even with these potential threats, but IF I am going to take a swing trade long, I prefer to do so on my terms which means it has to be according to my plan. If the market will not meet my criteria, then I stay flat. I developed this plan to keep me out of trouble and to help me recognize when conditions are more favorable in terms of reward/risk. It is not meant to get me into every movement, instead it is a form of protection against impulse, opinion and emotion.
Comments and questions welcome. (Also quick note: It has been brought to my attention that my reports are not appearing where they should be and as a result, my viewership is seriously low. TV does not seem to be responsive to the situation,so I am wondering if I can get further feedback from the community. I am trying to figure out, is it my subject matter? Feedback would be much appreciated).
Marc-
I love your analysis and agree with the cautionary approach. IMO however i compare this to .com and get these types of numbers. .com was almost 20 years ago and hit a 3 trillion market cap before it bust. So just a best guess would be equivalent to 6 Trillion in todays dollars. Crypto will dwarf .com when its all said and done. So any major size bubble like .com Im not expecting until a 10-20 trillion market cap. Why do I think this? because the technological impact to the world from cryptos dwarfs anything we've seen in the last 400 years. Bitcoin is triple entry's accounting 1st product. The alts are its other newest products with each legitimate coins getting better and better on the technical side. What this is is the S curve of mass adoption. The internet's S curve has pretty much reached mass adoption so the new S is forming. Every company, every person on the planet will operate on some type of Blockchain technology in the years to come. Humans are also on their own S curve of adoption. So think 70 years for the telephone to catch on and only 10 years for the cell phone to reach adoption. This will happen much bigger and much faster than any of us can wrap our heads around. So this only bubble indicator i have to go on is .com and we are no where even close to .com in todays dollars. even then the bust will just be the middle of the S and it clean out the fake or ideas that just aren't capable of happening yet. Take IOTA for example, a world wide IoT platform. Lets assume their vision comes to reality in 3-5 years. This is easily and i mean easily trillion dollar technology. A .com webpage is not even close to what IOTAs technology is capable of. Its valued at 8 billion right now. far far far from what this technology is worth at full adoption. Theres no double in my mind we will see the typical 25-40% mini crashes but the recovery will only speed up. Theres is no doubt this seems to good to be true, but we haven't experienced something this big in 400 years. Our markets and measuring tools all came from double entry accounting. This is triple entry. Sure humans are the same but fundamentally everything is about to change in a huge way. We are only just starting to discover what triple entry accounting will make possible. so while it does all seem to good to be true, my thought is i need the right scale to put it on. Believe it or not, this years gains can actually be the bottom of the S and its just about to get started.
Levan
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@jlhequities, Thank you for your ideas.... I agree almost fully...
nummus
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Marc, thank you for your great posts. Since I've started reading them, I never miss any of them. Reading your post above I have a question about whether now it's a good time to invest or not. You wrote that it isn't, because this time is basically no different. I'm certainly not an expert as you are, however, if you look at the historical log BTC price chart, you can see that previous peaks (April 2013, December 2013) where much steeper with much less significant retracements on the way up compared to the current rally. Also, it took the price much longer this time to get back to the level of the last major peak in December 2013 (about 5-times as much in previous occasions). Wouldn't this suggest that this time is at least a little bit different and that the price has still quite some way to go (even up to $30,000) before we enter some serious bear market?
AdrianZen
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It's a guessing game now... Or it even isn't Tether just pumps the price in a coordinated move on USDT exchanges by $500-700 when the conditions look unfavourable and successfully breaks every resistance. With such manipulation there is no limit how high it can go - it's only when they decide they have enough cash.
ediscolaw
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Hello Mark: thank you for your TA. I am an avid reader originally from Merrick, Long Island now living in Australia. Your posts are coming up on my ideas stream. Addionally, as a "follower" I am getting an email notification regarding your post each time it is posted.So I cannot add any feedback as to why your viewship has taken a deep dive as a late. I do not think I have missed a beat since @goldbug1 suggested your TA back in the day. Keep up the top-notch expert work.
bambam320
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I get all of your new ideas and updates, so I'm sure everyone else is getting them too. Thank you for posting and sharing your ideas with us by the way, I think we are all very grateful for your opinions and views. Could you elaborate a little on the Tether situation, please?
A lot of people commenting throughout the various ideas on TV usually ask questions that require a yes or no answer, maybe your posts require more thought and patience than they would like and there are so many of them...
juhajxag
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good sir, may god bless your soul for providing good analysis for free.
zambrpa1
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I follow you and always get an e/m notification when you post. So not sure.
In terms of content, your posts are highly valuable to me. I’m trying to develop more discipline as a trader and your approach perfectly supports that goal. Anyone with even a small amount of TA experience must recognize the high quality and value of your posts. Thank you for sharing your knowledge. I wouldn’t change a thing.
goldbug1
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Wonderful analysis Marc! When you can see the trend from 10 feet away why bet against it!
MoffTarkin
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Thank you for the analysis. One of the key issues with futures is the settlement price. Spot exchanges go down. Without an accurate price index who or what determines the price index? Overseas exchanges? CME and CBOE are optimistic however their approach is rife with pitfalls. Large institutional investors will be wary to get involved immediately. MT.
I love your analysis and agree with the cautionary approach. IMO however i compare this to .com and get these types of numbers. .com was almost 20 years ago and hit a 3 trillion market cap before it bust. So just a best guess would be equivalent to 6 Trillion in todays dollars. Crypto will dwarf .com when its all said and done. So any major size bubble like .com Im not expecting until a 10-20 trillion market cap. Why do I think this? because the technological impact to the world from cryptos dwarfs anything we've seen in the last 400 years. Bitcoin is triple entry's accounting 1st product. The alts are its other newest products with each legitimate coins getting better and better on the technical side. What this is is the S curve of mass adoption. The internet's S curve has pretty much reached mass adoption so the new S is forming. Every company, every person on the planet will operate on some type of Blockchain technology in the years to come. Humans are also on their own S curve of adoption. So think 70 years for the telephone to catch on and only 10 years for the cell phone to reach adoption. This will happen much bigger and much faster than any of us can wrap our heads around. So this only bubble indicator i have to go on is .com and we are no where even close to .com in todays dollars. even then the bust will just be the middle of the S and it clean out the fake or ideas that just aren't capable of happening yet. Take IOTA for example, a world wide IoT platform. Lets assume their vision comes to reality in 3-5 years. This is easily and i mean easily trillion dollar technology. A .com webpage is not even close to what IOTAs technology is capable of. Its valued at 8 billion right now. far far far from what this technology is worth at full adoption. Theres no double in my mind we will see the typical 25-40% mini crashes but the recovery will only speed up. Theres is no doubt this seems to good to be true, but we haven't experienced something this big in 400 years. Our markets and measuring tools all came from double entry accounting. This is triple entry. Sure humans are the same but fundamentally everything is about to change in a huge way. We are only just starting to discover what triple entry accounting will make possible. so while it does all seem to good to be true, my thought is i need the right scale to put it on. Believe it or not, this years gains can actually be the bottom of the S and its just about to get started.