This is a basic Elliott Wave count, tracing out completion of a five wave pattern over the next 5 years or so. Obviously this is a very bullish count. No need to tell me that there are lots of alternative counts that are valid and bearish.
In this count we are currently in Grand Supercycle III which ends in 2020 at around $500,000. Why so high? Because I am assuming wave III to be larger and more powerful than I (which ended the end of 2013) or II (which ended January 2015). This isn't such a crazy assumption, since basic Elliott Wave theory holds that the third wave in a five wave pattern tends to be the largest and most dominant of them all. (Alternatively, some would argue that for a commodity, wave 5 should be the largest and most dominant. Of course, it's not really clear whether bitcoin should be considered a commodity.) I have also included the bullish, large cup-and-handle from the end of 2013 to a few months ago, which I described in some detail in my first published idea. (In that idea I described it somewhat facetiously as having "5 shots of espresso" ... i.e. bullish x 5.)
From a fundamental analysis perspective, institutional investors are just beginning to dip their toes into the cryptocurrency market, so there is a lot further to go assuming that more institutional investors will eventually follow suit. I am also assuming that SegWit, Lightning network and other improvements will make bitcoin easier and cheaper over the coming years. Maybe not enough for everyone to be using it by 2020, but enough to convince investors that eventually, it will gain common usage, like email did in the 1990s.
Note that I am starting the count at about 10 cents in 2010 and tracing it to the $32 peak in 2011, both of which occurred prior to the opening of Bitstamp.
In this count we are currently in Grand Supercycle III which ends in 2020 at around $500,000. Why so high? Because I am assuming wave III to be larger and more powerful than I (which ended the end of 2013) or II (which ended January 2015). This isn't such a crazy assumption, since basic Elliott Wave theory holds that the third wave in a five wave pattern tends to be the largest and most dominant of them all. (Alternatively, some would argue that for a commodity, wave 5 should be the largest and most dominant. Of course, it's not really clear whether bitcoin should be considered a commodity.) I have also included the bullish, large cup-and-handle from the end of 2013 to a few months ago, which I described in some detail in my first published idea. (In that idea I described it somewhat facetiously as having "5 shots of espresso" ... i.e. bullish x 5.)
From a fundamental analysis perspective, institutional investors are just beginning to dip their toes into the cryptocurrency market, so there is a lot further to go assuming that more institutional investors will eventually follow suit. I am also assuming that SegWit, Lightning network and other improvements will make bitcoin easier and cheaper over the coming years. Maybe not enough for everyone to be using it by 2020, but enough to convince investors that eventually, it will gain common usage, like email did in the 1990s.
Note that I am starting the count at about 10 cents in 2010 and tracing it to the $32 peak in 2011, both of which occurred prior to the opening of Bitstamp.
