This is a basic Elliott Wave count, tracing out completion of a five wave pattern over the next 5 years or so. Obviously this is a very bullish count. No need to tell me that there are lots of alternative counts that are valid and bearish.
In this count we are currently in Grand Supercycle III which ends in 2020 at around $500,000. Why so high? Because I am assuming wave III to be larger and more powerful than I (which ended the end of 2013) or II (which ended January 2015). This isn't such a crazy assumption, since basic Elliott Wave theory holds that the third wave in a five wave pattern tends to be the largest and most dominant of them all. (Alternatively, some would argue that for a commodity, wave 5 should be the largest and most dominant. Of course, it's not really clear whether bitcoin should be considered a commodity.) I have also included the bullish, large cup-and-handle from the end of 2013 to a few months ago, which I described in some detail in my first published idea. (In that idea I described it somewhat facetiously as having "5 shots of espresso" ... i.e. bullish x 5.)
From a fundamental analysis perspective, institutional investors are just beginning to dip their toes into the cryptocurrency market, so there is a lot further to go assuming that more institutional investors will eventually follow suit. I am also assuming that SegWit, Lightning network and other improvements will make bitcoin easier and cheaper over the coming years. Maybe not enough for everyone to be using it by 2020, but enough to convince investors that eventually, it will gain common usage, like email did in the 1990s.
Note that I am starting the count at about 10 cents in 2010 and tracing it to the $32 peak in 2011, both of which occurred prior to the opening of Bitstamp.
Looks like my prediction has done pretty well so far. I had predicted the end of wave (I) of Grand Supercycle ((III)) to be at about $15,000 in early October, and we are currently a little higher (17k) and a little later (currently early December) than my prediction.
The sentiment still feels bullish. BTC price has been following a parabolic rise. BTC futures opened on CBOE 2 days ago under high volume, and prices have continued to rise, contrary to the predictions of many pundits who predicted that futures would suppress the price because now finally we can all short bitcoin, woo hoo! Alts have taken off, with LTC more than tripling in the past 4 days, triggered (I think) by a spate of prime time interviews by litecoin's creator Charlie Lee, who normally doesn't go around pushing litecoin on everyone (to his credit). However, parabolic rises don't last forever. According to my "bullish big picture," we should be due anytime now for wave (II). I have it charted to take us down to $5000, but I'm thinking maybe a little higher than that, since wave (I) has taken us higher than charted. If/when that happens, pundits will probably say that Wall Street has finally killed bitcoin dead and for good with its bitcoin futures yada yada yada. But progress on bitcoin's Lightning Network has been good, with several promising beta test demonstrations over the past week or so of lightning transactions on main net bitcoin. If progress continues on the Lightning front, it could increase confidence tremendously in those of us following the fundamentals and fuel a powerful impulsive wave (III) taking us above 100k.
I haven't done fibonacci calculations and all that, so take my precise targets with a grain of salt. Qualitative big picture is what I'm charting here.
Do you think we can still hit 3k in 2019 before the next bull run?
Andbcoin
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How the hell have you predicted it so perfectly? And my question is, why have you set the wave 1 and 2 in the middle of the parabola there and not before? I can see a possible wave 1 and 2 between 19/1/2015 and 10/8/2015.
I'm sure a valid count could be drawn the way you describe. I'm setting the transition between Grand Supercycle ((II)) and ((III)) in January 2015 because that's the lowest price, but the most powerful patterns (to me) are the inverse head and shoulders and the multiple cup and handles (described in my first published idea) that are actually centered around May 2015. It's as if it took the market a long time to "decide" that the bear market was over, and it wasn't until later in 2015 that Grand Supercycle ((III)) was really underway. So I suppose that's why I placed waves 1 and 2 a bit later than the dates that you mention.
Andbcoin
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@GaiusBaltar, Thanks so much! By the way, you say we’re in Grand supercycle III at the moment. But how have you determined it was wave I and II in 2014 / 2015? I can see more mountains before that could easily be those waves. In fact, wave 1 has lasted for 7 years and wave 3 only 6? Mmm... wave 1 would be longer than wave 3. If you turn on log mode, I have seen this is wave 5. I don’t know...
Thanks for your comment. :)
Bitnew
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Nice call, now we in the Q3 Q4 of 2018 would be a blessing to give us the fans an update on a new analysis now. Thanks take care
The sentiment still feels bullish. BTC price has been following a parabolic rise. BTC futures opened on CBOE 2 days ago under high volume, and prices have continued to rise, contrary to the predictions of many pundits who predicted that futures would suppress the price because now finally we can all short bitcoin, woo hoo! Alts have taken off, with LTC more than tripling in the past 4 days, triggered (I think) by a spate of prime time interviews by litecoin's creator Charlie Lee, who normally doesn't go around pushing litecoin on everyone (to his credit). However, parabolic rises don't last forever. According to my "bullish big picture," we should be due anytime now for wave (II). I have it charted to take us down to $5000, but I'm thinking maybe a little higher than that, since wave (I) has taken us higher than charted. If/when that happens, pundits will probably say that Wall Street has finally killed bitcoin dead and for good with its bitcoin futures yada yada yada. But progress on bitcoin's Lightning Network has been good, with several promising beta test demonstrations over the past week or so of lightning transactions on main net bitcoin. If progress continues on the Lightning front, it could increase confidence tremendously in those of us following the fundamentals and fuel a powerful impulsive wave (III) taking us above 100k.
I haven't done fibonacci calculations and all that, so take my precise targets with a grain of salt. Qualitative big picture is what I'm charting here.