botje11

Upwards momentum is strong but weakening. Target 17.500

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
The bullish flag predicts 17.500, but the 17.250 is only 150 points higher than the previous high. Instead of really breaking out, for me this is a first sign of weakness.

For the short term, if it stays above the 16.700, than everything is still bullish for the small time frame. Below this level is bigger drop is possible.

For the longer time frame, 16.200 is important now, it should not make a lower low, preferably staying above 16.500. A H&S could form if it does not stay above these levels. For more info, check my previous chart together with all the updates and views.

It is dropping more as i am writing this, making attempts to get higher but failing, there is no real volume buying support at the moment. I will probably go long somewhere between 16.400/16.600

Komen:
Komen: Target seems to be around 15.500/15.300. For the bulls it should bounce up from there, maybe i will make a long trade there, but probably only when it makes something like a double bottom
Komen: SPoofy again with 800 BTC at 15.800, just pocket change LOL :)
Komen: Was not spoofy this time, this seller pulled up the price with 10 dollar while other exchanges were rising, at 18.850 there was one buyer who bought 300 btc at one. Does not seem like something normal to me. I dont know, anyone who has an opinion or knows more, please share
Komen: I am out at 15.760.
What a joke, if this is not manipulation than i dont know what is. Who buys 300 btc at once, and does not know what he is doing. goes up 200 points and than within 5 minutes it just drops again
Komen:

Good luck
Komen:

flag, H&S, and double bottom set
Komen:
Lets see if it has the strenght now. I want to say this time it's 90% sure, but i dont want to make that statement now LOL. The bounce is much bigger this time from the lows. I do however think a drop to 14.100ish is still possible, but lets see if it can break through the 15K
Komen: There is spoofy again with this time 1000 BTC at 14.650 in the sell
Komen: I did not see what happened this time, i had to go away. Now 15 min ago again 700 contracts at 14.700, got sold in 2 minutes, 80% were 10 and 20 BTC orders (round numbers). This just aint normal trading, once again. I wish i was here the whole day, i think i could have established a pattern than (maybe), to predict future movements
Komen: Spoofy is there again at 14.900, getting close to much many times now, 90% sure will see a drop below 14.900
Komen: Spoofy ran away this time LOL :)
Komen:
This is my guess will happen the coming day, but it's risky while there is a lot of price steering
Komen: By the way, the rising wedge you see at the 17K top, i was expecting it would complete the pattern to go towards the 17.400/17.600, to go short around that area, but it never got there so i missed the chance to build up a big short position.

I am going short now at 15.200, first small position
Komen: I was not able to update today, price action was quite allot and quite predictable at the short time frame, i did not want to miss out any chances. If i do say so myself, my last prediction was picture perfect, even with the last top at 15.300and the big drop we saw today. I hope it was usefull this time. For now it's not easy what it will do on the short term, i do believe it's over and out for Bitcoin the coming period, unless some fundamental things have to change. I think we will see at least the 12K the coming day(s)
Komen:
Everything below the red area now, we will see 12K or even lower today
Komen: 14.000/14.050 is also a resistancehttps://www.
Komen:
possible small bounce up now
Komen: Above this red area, we could see the 14K/14.100 again
Komen: This is a strong bounce, 14.300/14.400 is also very possible now
Komen:
Just seems like many people want to get out of BTC
Komen: I see big orders in the book, that i have not seen in months!. Within 50 points, 4 different bids of 100 BTC, as i am writing a fifth also. This is clear buying support, not buying! This could help short term, but not long term!!
Komen: This bounce is much bigger than i even thought!. EVen got passed the 14.400 i mentioned very easily!
Komen: The first resistance, this could be the top, but this could just as well be a consolidation!. 14.800/15.000 is a resistance
Komen:
This flag is looking very bad! 80% chance we will see another big drop, unless some very big support comes
Komen:
Target looks like 13.000ish
Komen: Target reached at high speed!!. Big chance we will see a bounce up now, but not a real big one this time i think
Komen: I did mention in previous update, that it really looked like people were trying to get out of BTC, and even more important, what i said about those big orders giving support to the buyers (but not buying them selves). I said it would only help short term! Now we have seen why. Half day ago with that big bounce up, forming an almost perfect bullish flag, even a perfect outbreak. I can just get really angry, that these markets get so manipulated, and so easy and just no goverment taking action, no one getting punished or something.

In my EURUSD long term chart, where i predict an US economic downfall (maybe crisis) in the next year or 2. I also made the statement, that the Cryto world collapse will get the blame for the coming economic decline (crisis)!

I am glad i was out today so i didnt trade on that flag, I did however missed most of this big drop also. But i did make this homerun in 10 minutes, almost 700 points.
Komen: My guess is something like this , but this is a gues!! 50/50 chance that the 13.000 is the bottom for now!
Komen: Like i said, a bounce up but not a real bounce, sentiment is waaayyyy to negative. It did not expect it would drop this low this to 12.600 this fast!Now i do think the short term bottom is set, but only a 60% chance., so i am NOT going long!

Komen: If it an above the 13.200, than chances are bigger that the short bottom is set.
Komen:
There is still no bounce up, chances are increasing it will drop some more!
Komen: Last update
Komen:
Textbook :)
Komen: I dont like these H&S at these positions, but if momentum is negative enough, it could reach the target
Komen: Blue line is a possibility, if there still are some crazy people wanting to but Bitcoin now :)
Komen: I do have to say, i dont see as much selling pressure as yesterday, but i also dont see any real buying. Chance for a drop is bigger. Anyone seen spoofy today?
Komen:

A drop below 13K will trigger 12.200 target, lets see if it stays under the neckline
Komen: Spoofy in tha house at 13K, more than 1000 BTC
Komen: I think he dissapeared, i missed it, there were 200+ sold, instant!
They are supporting it, trying to push it above the neckline again, lets see how much selling pressure there is!
Komen:

Last chance, this should accelerate now, I have lowered my stop to around 13.250, ensuring a nice profit
Komen: I am really wondering what kind of people are buying at this very moment, with all the bad news these few days. Trying to make a small H&S, but 70% it will fail and drop again. They are trying to hold it above the 13K, it is needed to prevent a big drop to low 12K. Lets see how much power there is
Komen: Looks like they are going to make it, If it gets above the 13.300 i will close my short and wait for better signals
Komen: I am going long now, with a smaller position, wide stop to around 13.900, target is around 15.000, second target around 15.500. It is getting bought close to 14.000, so its getting some sort of buying support, or some are planning to get it higher again.
It did drop out of that smaller time frame upwards trendline, It could still drop, but the retrace was 120 points above the breakout price of that trend line. If it would be really weak, the retrace would be much less,about 14.200. I have seen this kind of set ups before, showing some bearish signs, but still go up.
Komen: It is almost necessary that it stays within this bullish pattern
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I think the people that think the Korea news is overrated are buying in. The feel it's cheap atm considering how far down we are this is about pivotal point and want Bitcoin..
Balas
@TTN-, So far it seems that way, so far for the longer term it has made a higher low
Balas
Do you Short the beast?
Balas
botje11 cmschlch
@cmschlch, Yes i do
Balas
Head and shoulder. Neckline confirmed? U think It's the beginning of a big Drop down?
Balas
Korea news was FUD - we will recover
Balas
botje11 the_sunship
@the_sunship, so far it seems your right
Balas
@botje11, still doesn't seem particularly bullish. Also the 3day MACD just crossed bearish. I'm sitting on my hands right now before jumping into BTC
Balas
botje11 the_sunship
@the_sunship, It really struggling staying above the 14K, but if it does, it should go to the 15K and 15.500
Balas
these updates are great. keep em coming! <3
Balas
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