BTCUSD has seen slowed momentum this past week and has many hallmarks of the fabled 2013 crash I think are worth comparing. The similarities begin with an overthrow out of a bullish channel, the rebound of which begins a new channel. Price then ranges between the median and lower boundary line, the final test of the median line leads to a breaking out of the channel to the low-side. This is where we currently may be. From here we should look for a potential bounce off of the 0.5 Fibonacci support into the formation of a double top (may not happen). If it does this may be our first confirmation and an early short position could be taken. After that we rely solely on trend line supports, the first bounce here would be the safest short position to take. After this first bounce it's a slippery slope into a year long bear market. We have seen many 0.5 fib bounces throughout this bull run, so it is quite likely this is not the top and we continue up, but I think this is worth considering.
*This is not trading advice, merely my observations and ideas*
I agree with your idea. Please check out my 90 day percent change volume pattern of the three bitcoin bubbles before and let me think what you think.
UnknownUnicorn1793089
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@RafaelJara17, sorry let me know what you think
Piedpiper
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Size of the market is much bigger now. No?
Manifested
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@Piedpiper, It is, and we have gone up 12,000% this bull run as opposed to 2,500% in 2013. That's probably a fair measure of how much the market has grown. All markets, no matter the size, don't stay bullish forever.
Piedpiper
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@Manifested, truth. Is there a way to scale up the market size from 2013 to compare it to the market size now? Sorry i'm new to this. I do agree the charts look identical.
Manifested
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@Piedpiper, I'm not sure, but that is an interesting question. I noticed that we are moving about 7x as slow this go around as well. There are just so many variables that have changed since then and now. Let me know if you find someway do to that though!
Piedpiper
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@Manifested, I will try. I guess all I'm saying is almost 50% of the market would have to dump in order for history to repeat, and with a market this size that would take a lot people running for the hills. Maybe a large hack could do it. But with all the buzz, i just see the market growing. Was there an event in 2013 when it turned down? like a hack?
I will keep my eye on this. please update as you watch.
Manifested
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@Piedpiper, So in terms of actual size (bitcoin supply) the market is only 36% bigger than it was (source: blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=all). I don't think it would take nearly that amount to dump in order for this to occur, it's more a measure of sentiment than anything. Also with supply fixed, price is dictated almost entirely by demand.
As far as events, I'm not sure if anything particular happened near the peak itself, although there were growing concerns about an exchange, Mt. Gox, leading up to this point about delays on withdrawals and whether the exchange was fungible or not. Later in February of 2014 they reported large amounts of bitcoin missing and the exchange halted all trading and withdrawals, aka the Mt. Gox hack. (source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt._Gox)
So basically the market sentiment was shifting towards the peak, and the hack just sealed the deal. Recently there have been large numbers of complaints about withdrawal delays, flash crash liquidations and even questions of whether there is frangibility on the exchange Bitfinex, which trades the largest volume of bitcoin (source: coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
Piedpiper
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@Manifested, Nice investigating. Please update with time. I'm very interested in what you're on about.