First off, I understand that bitcoin has great fundamentals. Bitcoin has great potential to be a currency that can be used everywhere around the world, decentralized and the digital money of the future. There's no doubt bitcoin will have great use in the future but there are still some issues which have not been fully addressed (as today). In November-December bitcoin will get another hard-fork, even though we can take Bitcoin Cash as an example which is not fully embraced by the community, a new fork will certainly take away some percentage of bitcoins original marketcap and lower it's price.
I would like to use the term fragmentation for the bitcoin forks, possibly this will not be the last one, since technology is not flawless and needs constant updating/fixing to keep up with the demand or vulnerabilities. Fragmentation or the consequent splitting of bitcoins market cap across hard-forks will be an influence on Bitcoins price in the future. Another issue for long-term holders or users who for example fully want to use bitcoin as the primary source of money face the fact that bitcoin's volatility is a huge problem because their account worth fluctuates in large degrees. One requirement for a usable currency is that it's volatility shouldn't be too large, which bitcoin does not currently posses.
Bitcoin as of Jan 2017 till now Mid October 2017 has seen an unprecedented growth of 600% (~285 days, 1000->6000). Compared to 2013, where it grow 886% in only 60 days (October-December).
I let my Elliot Wave count start where the trend started that broke the cup of 2013, from this starting point 3 up-following waves should bring us to our final reversal point and bring the market in a corrective phase. Both the parabolic growth pattern and the wave count indicate strong reversal at the indicated levels and it is strongly advised to take profit here. The market will turn in a bear market for at least several months if not +1 year. A 5-3 pattern plays out, our three bull waves then a deep ABC correction which has strong support at 3600 level (4) where the last wave took off and is also 50% retracement if we we're to hit 7K. The price level of 2800 looks like the bottom to me which is the 38.2% retracement, not sure if bitcoin could get to this level.
The last update is based on the previous pattern, colors are shown accordingly.
Komen
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Komen
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Here we compare the Shanghai Composite Index to Bitcoins current Bullrun. This index also topped off at 6150, around same target as mine (6200-6600) and had a very similar up run from a cup outbreak. I don't think bitcoin will dump this deep at all, the downtrend waves are an idea of how it could look like.
Komen
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Weekly indicator should be a good indicator to watch!
Komen
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Bull will start kicking in soon! 4H macd about to cross bullish and breaking up from bullflag will release lots consolidate volume. BTFD!
Komen
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Komen
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Bitcoin new ATH today!
Dagangan aktif
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Komen
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Thinking BTC will take some rest around 6400-6500.
Thanks for the effort for sharing your analysis, I've few different opinions would like to share, if I'm wrong please correct me
1. When a new fork happens, what I see is the whole cryptocurrencies space has absorbed even more capital, like Bitcoin Cash, even though BCC did take some market shares, but the overall market cap is still increasing, and Bitcoin actually attracted more people prior to the fork.
2. Cryptocurrencies are actually just starting to gain exposures from the world, more and more finance sector has been starting to look into Bitcoin, for example, Fidelity. Investing/Holding Bitcoin is actually not that easy, but soon it'll be easier, as ETF or developers are going to eradicate the technical barrier of investing Bitcoin, which will allow more capital inflow.
I believe technical analysis could help us to make some profitable trade in Bitcoin in shorter time frame, but for a longer time frame, technical analysis couldn't factor enough possibilities to give a solid prediction.
hazex
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@josephcy95, That's what I've said. Bitcoin works on FUD / FOMO principles. Not financial charts.
TheTrex
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@hazex, That's correct, FUD and FOMO fuel bitcoin's price breakouts. However TA reveals future reversals, unsustainable growth angles (nature in general does not allow this) and potential wave counts which indicate end or beginning of a trend. TA is your tool to plan where to exit or to enter, it certainly has it value and without you would be gambling or have not strategy where to rationally exit a market.
Chose what works best for you, relying on longterm Fundamental Analysis or TA or a mix between the two. ;)
hazex
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@TheTrex, No, FUD and FOMO dictate trends, not just breakouts. To find out how deep into FOMO / bubble burst are we, run through facebook comments on crypto sites with educated people, then run through commens on portals with semi-educated like Investopedia, then run through the tabloids where the most uneducated are. If you still see a bunch of FOMO / bitcoin is a scam comments. An upwards trend is resuming, presumably there's no FUD from governments.
We're still DEEP into forming a bubble, plenty of growth left until it bursts.
1. When a new fork happens, what I see is the whole cryptocurrencies space has absorbed even more capital, like Bitcoin Cash, even though BCC did take some market shares, but the overall market cap is still increasing, and Bitcoin actually attracted more people prior to the fork.
2. Cryptocurrencies are actually just starting to gain exposures from the world, more and more finance sector has been starting to look into Bitcoin, for example, Fidelity. Investing/Holding Bitcoin is actually not that easy, but soon it'll be easier, as ETF or developers are going to eradicate the technical barrier of investing Bitcoin, which will allow more capital inflow.
I believe technical analysis could help us to make some profitable trade in Bitcoin in shorter time frame, but for a longer time frame, technical analysis couldn't factor enough possibilities to give a solid prediction.