Here we have BTC/USD on the 4H chart.
BTC/USD has been trading within structure since a rally paused on the 17th December and began to correct. Price has recently been trading within a structure, between the horizontal at 12600, and at a side-wards resistance, at 15210 (At current days level)
Price has broken out of the side-wards resistance. When price was testing the support previously it was making higher lows. But on the last retest of support on January 2, it is having clear higher lows on smaller timeframes, which indicates momentum which was an early clue that price was going to breakout.
I am expecting Bitcoin to continue successfully breaking out. Before this, price will likely retest the sideways resistance, as a support line, before having a strong up move.
This trade could play out in 2 days, I have outlined these below:
-Price successfully breaks out and closes above resistance, and then retests the side-wards resistance as support at around 14800 before confirming and going to the upside, eventually reaching upside target at 19580.
-Price breaks out, and does not retest the side-wards . Instead, price continues to the highs and it corrects at a later stage, before reaching the target zone at 19580.
Bare in mind, that price could move a lot further than the targets outlined above. The target above is merely an obstacle for price action as it is the previous swing high.
If price retests the resistance line as support first, this might indicate slightly more weakness than if price immediately has an impulse leg and leaves structure behind. This is the behavior Bitcoin exhibits when in a legitimate uptrend. When it is legitimately impulsive to upside, it tens to ignore retests.
I will updating this analysis if it receives more than 40 likes.
Been watching BTC closely, and I am concerned for anyone in a buy position.
BTC/USD has been at the mercy of the Dollar market, and it has really effected how trends on Bitcoin, in turn effecting many other altcoins.
Looking now, I can see a possible Gartley pattern forming. Literally believe that if price breaks the sideways support on my chart at 13790, that BTC/USD could actually end up in a more deeper correction.
I'd be ready to be out of this trade for sure if below 12340 and not a dollar lower.
It's the side-wards support line at 14000 which is key.
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