Time to update my August 2017 Elliott Wave count which appears to have played out pretty nicely, albeit with a bit of a delay (by 2 or 3 months) than I had called it.
If my count continues to play out, which I think it could, we have an inverse head and shoulders between early June and early July 2018 that could mark the end of wave 2, which began December 2017. I've drawn a blue box around the head and shoulders. Everything after that I've kept the same, just pushed back a few months.
Two possible short-term bearish (but still long term bullish) counts:
It's possible that wave 2 (starting Dec 2017) is still not over. One of the guidelines of EW is that an ABC correction should end in the area of the prior wave 4 low, which by my count is in the low 1800's (July 2017). The wishful thinker in me points out that that does not have to be the case, with Grand Supercycle ((II)) being an example of an ABC correction ending much higher than the prior wave 4 low. Plus, it would take us dangerously close (on a log scale) to the resistance of the Dec 2013 high, which is why I drew it the way I did in the first place (in my Aug 2017 count).
Another possibility is that December 2017 was actually the end of Grand Supercycle ((III)), and we are in the midst of a Grand Supercycle ((IV)) bear market starting Dec 2017 that still has a long way to go.
As far as the big-picture fundamentals, they continue to look good. Layer 2 solutions continue to advance, with lightning having entered early beta phase over the past year. An outline for Schnorr signatures, the next big improvement to the bitcoin protocol (after Segwit), was recently published. Among the financial and political elite, publicly stated opinions continue to be all over the place. We hear things like Warren Buffett calling bitcoin "rat poison squared." On the other hand, the world's largest asset manager BlackRock with $6.3 trillion in assets under management as of Dec 2017 is at least taking a look at bitcoin/crypto investments. Nothing has derailed the big picture, which is that bitcoin is on track to become cheaper, easier, faster and more reliable than alternative methods of payment; but many people won't believe it until they see it. That's still a ways off, but it's only a matter of time.
If my count continues to play out, which I think it could, we have an inverse head and shoulders between early June and early July 2018 that could mark the end of wave 2, which began December 2017. I've drawn a blue box around the head and shoulders. Everything after that I've kept the same, just pushed back a few months.
Two possible short-term bearish (but still long term bullish) counts:
It's possible that wave 2 (starting Dec 2017) is still not over. One of the guidelines of EW is that an ABC correction should end in the area of the prior wave 4 low, which by my count is in the low 1800's (July 2017). The wishful thinker in me points out that that does not have to be the case, with Grand Supercycle ((II)) being an example of an ABC correction ending much higher than the prior wave 4 low. Plus, it would take us dangerously close (on a log scale) to the resistance of the Dec 2013 high, which is why I drew it the way I did in the first place (in my Aug 2017 count).
Another possibility is that December 2017 was actually the end of Grand Supercycle ((III)), and we are in the midst of a Grand Supercycle ((IV)) bear market starting Dec 2017 that still has a long way to go.
As far as the big-picture fundamentals, they continue to look good. Layer 2 solutions continue to advance, with lightning having entered early beta phase over the past year. An outline for Schnorr signatures, the next big improvement to the bitcoin protocol (after Segwit), was recently published. Among the financial and political elite, publicly stated opinions continue to be all over the place. We hear things like Warren Buffett calling bitcoin "rat poison squared." On the other hand, the world's largest asset manager BlackRock with $6.3 trillion in assets under management as of Dec 2017 is at least taking a look at bitcoin/crypto investments. Nothing has derailed the big picture, which is that bitcoin is on track to become cheaper, easier, faster and more reliable than alternative methods of payment; but many people won't believe it until they see it. That's still a ways off, but it's only a matter of time.
