I've been off lately and only did a couple of smaller trades... but I'm back :D
The last couple of trades, in retrospect, were both right and wrong in the way of: right in terms of bigger picture bull/bear movements, wrong in terms of predictions of exact impulse legs.
So in these last weeks we are looking at a major massive volatile Elliott wave type of swings inside the triangle. We can see the major trends in a triangle with multiple long and short impulse legs and it's this triangle that we can speculate we've finally broken out of. 1 day chart shows our MACD is still on the bull side of 0 but about hitting it, though now turning up from last three days bull candles...
Ichimoku is still showing green clouds on 1 day.
Many signs pointing for a big bull run, that said first I see we are testing the resistance at 2600-2620:
The Fib Ret on my chart is from the all time high of 3000 and down to the latest major correction at D about 2060.
The lower triangle has formed a consistent trending support which is now at about 2400 and that overlays beautifully with Fib Ret 0.382 level.
The last time we took a dip inside the triangle we reached its bottom at 2280ish which also lines up well with the Fib Ret at .236.
We then broke out of the triangle resistance trend formed by the trend from 3000 and touching the various bull impulse legs in the triangle. We reached up to the .618 Fib Ret at about 2620 and this also forms major historic support and resistance, just follow the yellow line / red arrow and see for yourself.
Our MACD and RSIs on all sub 1 day charts are in favor of bearish combined with the 2620 being strong resistance, so I believe we will take a swing down to either 2400 or 2470. I will follow that and take a long position down there UNLESS we see bull flags now ish (which I dont) that we are really breaking up through 2620 possibly with multiple quick tests back down on the 15-30min 1hr charts/candles.
I don't think we will break up through just yet because breaking out of the triangle created some sort of harmonic pattern which is bearish W combined with stretching all sub 1 day candles quite far above their EMAs with MACDs and RSIs a bit too hot and one could speculate we need a swing down in order to have enough RSI and MACD leeway to have enough confident bull traders to snap it up as EMA, RSI, MACD will look like a super deal and use that to push back up and through the 2600 resistance and make it a support.
(I'm starting to think there might be some institutionals out there? They would do exactly such a thing...)
So right now I'm not touching it, neither short nor long. Off to the beach ;-)
That said, if we pull back down to say 2550 or lower with a couple of red candles then surely one should short down to 2400 though its risky (2470 bounce - calculate your risk reward) because the 1 day MACD and RSI are set to go bullish any moment and we are carving into EMA lines on the 1 day and soon touching the green ichimoku cloud.
My numbers are: - Possibly short now ish down to 2400/2470 ish, let's see next hours. Need to check if I have a swing trade there versus R/R 1:3 - Long from 2400 possibly 2470 if we get a pull back now-ish along the bear impulse leg, then profit up to 2660ish possibly 2730 - Again: from down there punching through 2600, BC leg, profit at 2660 ish possilby 2730 which will be another major battle. - 2730 will be a strong resistance and should cause a swing down, hard to say how deep but clearly not deeper than 2600 in this setup. - From that swing down we should get enough bulls to push up through 2730 and reach up towards 3000 possibly with some battles at 2770/2800.
If we don't get pullback now, then long from a safe distance from 2620 as per Fit Rets.
1hr chart MACD reversal and plenty of EMA leeway to cut into .. bear down ;-)
Komen
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Leading to a 4hr red candle coming right up:
Komen
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If I'm wrong with the leg down then it will be in about 6 hours we know, following trend from the impulse up... two small candles down, a couple of large up.
There's some potential for this even if MACD and RSI are a bit hot, because we've formed a supporting ichimoku cloud. So, be careful with either long or short as this deal hasn't confirmed just yet.
Komen
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Heads up - pay attention to 2520 which is also a Fit Ret. We need to break down through, not bounce ;-) ... lets see.
Komen
JoE
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I think it is very likely to hit 4423 (2.618 fib) , if you convert it to CNY you'd notice that actually is 30,000 yuan, very significant psychological level.
bernino
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@JoE, NICE! Yeah - makes sense to match against Yuan!!!
sjesul
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can you elaborate your last comment? You expect it to break down below 2520, and how is this a fib ret.? Why do we have to break. Much thanks for your analysis!
bokeb
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@sjesul, he's saying the 2520 level can provide upwards support, partially because its at the 50% fibonacci retracement level from the 3000 ath to the subsequent low at 2060.
He's saying that therefore it can bounce *upwards* from 2520 rather than breaking down through as anyone shorting based on this model would be hoping for.
bokeb
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and so far it sure has been.. though not with convincing volume. almost ready to close my little short at a small loss.
Thank you for this very detailed analysis. Looks like you're right about a few more small waves before the big run - guess I'll have to scalp a bit before going long term long!
bokeb
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Truly excellent specificity and clarity, too.
bernino
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@bokeb, Thank you! yeah I think scalping makes a lot of sense with this setup and volatility. What time frame are you scalping in? EMA tools or other?
bokeb
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@bernino, opened a short that i'll probably close within 10 hours before sleep. hope to open a long by then but maybe sleep on a limit.
Not good at reading EMA well yet; still relatively new to trading, dont trust my own analysis well yet - mostly I crowdsource lots of other people's TA and look for a prevailing sensible consensus and compare that against a bit of my own TA, gut feeling, and a bit of long-term tinfoil hat research.
currently it certainly seems to be btc bullish for the coming weeks