bricoleurs
Singkat

BTC 15 000 or 12 000

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
The 4h chart and the 1d chart of BTC             ( RSI , Coppock , OBV, DMI, TSI and Aroon , MACD ) show somewhat different outcome for BTC:
- based on the 4h it is possible that 15k             was/is the bottom for BTC             and DI+ times are coming,
- however based on the 1d, there is strong chance for further down to 12k or a long consolidation period.

The charts shows the 12k scenario: Coppock goes close to zeroish, RSI goes down to 30, MA42 stops the downtrend. (Yet, if I take the weekly DMI than there is ~20% chance that BTC             might break that line and may go down further...)

Since BTC             has had a superlong and superstrong DI+ period for a month, I would say 12k is likely, yet the superincreased OBV and hype might stop it at 15k             now....I have no idea.

But, there is bigger concern for me: I have problem understanding that since Dec, BTC-LTC-ETH 1w correlation is 0,9, which is hyper-high, from this perspective these coins are "one", which is super-unhealthy, I think. Why are they so super-correlated? Will it remain that way? Ideas? Why people panicking about LTC/ETH when BTC             falls? (The conversion only shall not explain this 0.9, there are not interconnected system in real life, but in the exchange they are. Why?)

Perdagangan aktif: The drop to 12,5k was way faster than I predicted, making RSI 4h lowest, which means we might hit the bottom.
Perdagangan aktif: I got in early, 5mins RSI seemed stronger than I thought, 5mins RSI changing now. (RSI and its EMA).
Perdagangan aktif: I sold current high, minimizing my losses, because in my interpretation of Coppock(w,d,h), RSI-RSIEMA, tells that, here is still more going down the rabbit hole... I might be wrong. Again this is not a trading advice. Calculate risk, predict, analyze and have fun!
Perdagangan aktif: Based on 1w RSI-OBV-Coppock, I believe that there is further downside likely to come. Which I said previously as 4% is now 52%.

This was/is NOT a trading advice from me. Always use stops, try to avoid FOMO, calculate risks and happy holidays!
ps: just for the record: this was/is NOT a trading advice from me. Always use stops, try to avoid FOMO, calculate risks. (psps: in my biased risk calculation there is even a ~4% chance that BTC goes down to 5k. :-) Have fun!)
Balas
Newbies buying and selling in droves on Coinbase, where they were the only coins, might explain the correlation
+1 Balas
bricoleurs PRO thebigdoog
@thebigdoog, ok. coinbase certainly superstrong, but, for example why they are selling LTC/ETH when BTC is falling, and why are they buying LTC/ETH when BTC is rising... It feels I am missing something here.
Balas
thebigdoog PRO bricoleurs
@bricoleurs, my assumption it's spillover sentiment from people who don't understand the technology. They want to make money but aren't quite sure whether or not if it's a ponzi - they like when prices rise but get scared when they fall that they bought at the top.
+1 Balas
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