Keep an eye on these levels and specially on this triangle.
We are without doubt in a bear market since december 2017, the longest consolidation in +2 years with the worst fundamentals ever.
Mt.Gox just liquidated enough bitcoin+bitcoincash to cover creditors claims, but there are still +160k btc and bch that could keep being dumped by the bankruptcy trustee. Bulgaria hasn't reported what they are doing with the 200k btc they hold (worth right now over 13% of their national debt), but sooner or later the will dump them if they hadn't done it yet. And mt.gox coins being dumped might trigger someone in bulgarian govt (I guess the can't until the investigation and the case are over).
We still face the bitfinex-tether issue. It has been over 40 days since last tether issuance of USDT and despite an obviously bear market the amount is not decreasing, that is proving what I already knew and shared a few times: USDT cannot be redeemed into USD. The only use of a USDT (and that goes for bifinexUSD-iou's too) is to buy more cryptos, and despite a massive amount of them the market is failing to make new highs for over 70 days.
I have no doubt that 2018 is going to be a red year for bitcoin , the first red year since 2014
The question is more about how low rather than if the close will be lower or not. Probably near 3k USD.
Tether and Bitfinex are a problem for the whole cryptomarket, Bulgaria and Mt.Gox holdings are a problem specially for BTC and BCH.
Onchain usage is going down, trading is going down, google searches are going down, velocity of the ecosystem is going down and basically every metric has decoupled from past years trend and has plummeted.
The new paradigm is not as as some used to think, adoptions has frozen, usage is going down and uncertainity is growing massively. That leaves only one path forward: down.
As a bitcoin bear I am waiting for a more delusional market to re-enter the market. As a bitcoin bull I am waiting for real paninc to re-enter the market. I shorted 15k down to 10k and longed 6k up to 10k - this is a waiting game, get the perfect setup, take measured risks and go in hard.
I am going to enter short in the retest of the breakdown.
Paying attention to volume and to these falling wedges structures.
For now i have placed the stop just above breakdown level.