Bitcoin: BTCUSD Trading The Breakdown The massive head and shoulders top formation that has been building since the weekend highs has been completed today. Though quite loosely defined and with two potential neck-lines lying 300 points apart at 15814 and 15509 the pattern is undeniably bearish for the next 24 to 48 hours by look of the chart. But in very near term Bitcoin is staging a counter-rally which has taken it back to the upper neckline at 15814 where it's meeting resistance - it will now have to push on through here and hold up to trigger a further unwinding of shorts back up to 16447 and into the upper parallel before it crashes back down again. But whilst unable to beat 15814 and hold Bitcoin is vulnerable - a sell from 15800 with stops 60 higher for small loss if wrong and it can beat this level and hold - in which case it should rally a further 800 points to the upper parallel and then come off from there - so presenting a second chance to short from highest extreme likely with a stop about 80 points above the patrallel. So two chances to short from here. It should fall away from 15814 (and from 16447/upper parallel at highest) - to test 14040 at least and more likely 13086. The minimum downside target implied by the head and shoulders is 11391. The blue lines of support and then resistance have been working OK so far since the descent began - as usual a fall below any line by more than 25 points or so should lead to further weakness to the next. The new parallels guiding this descent are wide and strong - wider than any of the up-trends on the other side of this mountain. It's big. Obviously. The chart shows it clearly. Right now Bitcoin is making a little continuation pattern - under the neckline - it will fight at 15000 and just above - a lot of orders still determined to buy at this round number - but they are matched by equally determined sellers at 15814. Eventually the bears are likely to win...use any last rally up to 15814 as a selling opportunity with stops just 60 points higher for small loss if wrong, looking for a fall to 14035 initially, then lower still, as above. If not already short any break below 15000 by more than 10 points can be followed for a fall to 14040. And when this gives way another short opens up, this time to 13086. Or look to use this little rally attempt to sell from 15500 with stops 60 points higher *Stops - cannot be used in traditional manner with Bitcoin. You have to keep a stop number in your head and set an alert so if it comes within 50 points or so you get a notification and then have to watch to see price action: is it a spike down to your level and quickly bought back up or is it sticking... be cold, emotionless, machine-like. Easier said than done sometimes.
Komen
⋅
Typo 4 lines from bottom: should read: ...to sell from 15810 with stops 60 points above
Komen
⋅
So now it will try to bounce again from 15509 ...so if day trading close out and go short again once 15500 is broken...and the longer 15509 now holds the more likely that China will drive it higher towards the upper parallel . So not bad idea to close out if short and take some profit to use as stops on next short (from a break below 15500 or from 15814 again)
Komen
⋅
Komen
⋅
Hit the lower parallel so will rally from here...but will come back again later...can close out though if not already right on top of this
Hello first I thank u for your post, advice and efforts and I thank all the guys in the comments for all de advices and the efforts. I would like if u post all the opportunities that we can get hold of and the last thing can I still get in that specifiec stratis trade now
sydd777
⋅
I see us trading between 14 and 15 until the bottom falls out once again.
sydd777
⋅
Your time and effort are much appreciated Brother, thank you for keeping us educated :)
sumastardon
⋅
@sydd777, Thanks for the boost, Bro. But that week long ban cost us 4000 + points of lost profit opportunity. Will try to be good boy in future
oosk
⋅
Right. so the essence of what you are saying is "don't listen to Kcrower". Done. thanks for the confirmation. :)
sumastardon
⋅
@oosk, Erm, don't listen to anyone except what the chart is telling you!
kcrower782
⋅
Great analysis. My friend Alan won't listen to me but he really liked this. Will be following your updates.
sumastardon
⋅
@kcrower782, Your friend should just do what the chart tells him. With Bitcoin it's chart, not heart. Follow it and leave your heart at home (in the freezer !)