phil.steuerwald
Panjang

RSI confirmation. New 60 day BTC cycle has begun! Target 28k!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
$12600 support has held and our new cycle has begun! Yay!

Take a look at the chart. With the extended consolidation, it became necessary for me to update my targets. This extended consolidation allows me to also extend my target(s). Notice I have two now.

So, what is going on here is that it seems we are in a wedge . Elliott Wave dictates an ABCDE touch and then break out. However, some of the time (I do not know what the statistic ratio is? Maybe a comment warrior could help me out here), we will not experience the last wave. This is why I have two orange arrows pointing out of the triangle. We have two possibilities:

a) Hit the top of the triangle and break straight out or,
b) After hitting the top, we go back down, bounce off of the bottom and then break out.

Because of the downtrending resistance noted in the RSI chart, I expect the latter possibility to become more probable. However, as often is the case, Bitcoin             could surprise me again and just shoot right through.

Revised targets are:
#1 - Just short of our last ATH             . Take some off here.
#2 - $28,000 or the beginning of March, whichever comes first.

Why the beginning of March you asked? Check out the cycles again. Notice we are right on queue and headed up again. This means, we should have about 45 days of uptrend movement before we start heading down again for the last 15 days of the cycle and right into mid-March. Always keep this cycle in mind. BTC             is pretty consistent with it.

Happy trading friends!

Komen: No worries. We have a secondary triangle base (RED) right around our strong $12600 support area.

snapshot
Komen: A break below the lower RED base of the triangle will put us down to 11k and below that around 8.6k. Watch closely. Tonight/tomorrow should tell.
Komen: So, Bitcoin continues to surprise me. Nothing new I guess. As you all know, technical analysis is mostly a game of probabilities base on indicators. But probabilities are just that. They will not ever guarantee certainty.

It appears we have now entered into a downward BULLISH channel or flag pattern. In these down channels, we will often see three touches on both sides and then go. Of course, sometimes this does not happen. I have outlined what it might look like if it does.

Our lower supports are still the same. We've broken below 12.6k. We now have 11k for support. Some support at 9.3k. And lots more at 8.6k (our .236 fib retracement value).

Believe it or not, I am super excited about this move down. For me, it shows me that BTC is not as sick as I was beginning to believe. It shows me BTC is healing and is about to get strong again.

This move down is exactly what we need!

In regards to the cycles I've outlined in the RSI section. Last year we did have one longer 70ish day cycle. This was followed by a shorter 50 day. It appears BTC is completing another one of these longer cycles. You can expect that the next move UP will be severe and rapid.

Targets are still in place.

Hope you have your cash on hand for these bargain deals.

Happy Trading friends.

snapshot
Nice, I think we break the pennant at your D spot. Pennants like to break on the 5th touch of the lines. Also, pennants like to break out 2/3 of the way through and rarely go to the end. We shall see soon enough I suppose.Thanks for this!
+1 Balas
phil.steuerwald LindaMcGrath
@LindaMcGrath, Thanks for your comment. I've observed the same.
+1 Balas
I have a different view on this one. The Elliott Wave counts show that we have completed a very broad wave 1, and that we are in the midst of a wave 2 correction which can be very deep. My targets for this correction are the $8k-$10k range (0.618 to 0.5 fib). I'm going to wait this one out. It feels there is still too much euphoria around these markets right now, and this coupled with what EW analysis is pointing to I think is a recipe for a deeper correction.
Balas
@dalmazio, you might be right. There always remains that possibility and it is actually needed to show signs of better health for BTC. If we break my pennant to the downside. I'm with you on these projections.
+1 Balas
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