It's easy to get caught up looking at lower time frames. Make sure to zoom out and look at the big picture to keep perspective. The key factors in play at the moment are:
The bulls and bears are currently fighting over the key psychological 10k level.
Falling below the weekly 21EMA (with a candle close confirmation) is usually a clear signal that we are entering a prolonged bearish period (the 21EMA is currently $9954).
Staying above the weekly 21EMA is usually a clear signal that we remain in a strong bullish period.
Our current level lines up with previous tops in April 2018, Oct 2019, Feb 2020 and May/June 2020 and should offer strong support.
A CME Futures gap exists between $9665-9925. Regardless of if you believe "gaps must fill", the fact is 99% of the time they do get filled, by coincidence or not.
Any worse-case-scenerio dump, like back in March, should experience support with the immensely strong 200 weekly moving average (also converging with the 200 exponential moving average)... both currently sitting around $6600.
We are also back-testing the two year long resistance line that we have just burst through (also converging with the 21EMA)... if they hold as support this could prove the perfect launch for a push back up to 14k.
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Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting. This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Dagangan aktif
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Beautiful confirmation bounce off previous resistance/now support, as we continue being carried up by the weekly 21EMA. If we push beyond 12K expect a rapid move up towards 15k.
We could see a quick wick below and still remain bullish to 14k imo .
transparent-fx
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I am looking forward to a nice move up from this support region :)
shimmeringpath
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There is a fib near 133xx but 15k definitely sounds great . Thanks for update .
janicecarrington123
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very good work
PolarHusk
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very good work +++
h311m4n
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Nice simple chart, just like I draw mine :-)
CME gap "prophecy" is just a matter of probability, they get filled I believe 91% of the time so it is likely it will get filled. Seeing as it is only 400$ away at 9600 I think we may get a quick wick down before we push back up (there's another gap around 10600). Or maybe we go fill 10600 before we go back down.
Also need to keep an eye on what stonks do as BTC has a strong correlation to market sell-offs and buys.
McKitten
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What setting should I have for the 21 week EMA? Source and offset ?
BCryptological
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@McKitten, It's in here (Just go into settings and turn off any moving averages you don't want - I tend to focus on the 21+200EMA, plus 50+100+200MA):