Some things to note before I plunge into a projection. Panic volume was much lower on the second test of the Panic Zone bottom. The weak sellers are almost gone. There is technical banter between the "keepers" of the hash chain. Do we fork my way or do we fork your way. Maybe either way we're forked! This waffle of doom talk caused some major exits that culminated in the plunge in the second week of August. Since then there has been some strength and this movement is building up to be a third attempt to break out of the top of the zone. Even I got excited on the second breakout attempt in July. A new major trend was broken a month ago but now what? Am I all excited again?
NO
There is huge resistance above 300. Notice the down strokes from the market top. Looks like a Fib. fan. The dotted projection is resistance on the time scale. Natural resistance at the top of The Panic Zone will meet the time resistance in a month or so. I expect a failed breakout attempt. In fact technically, I don't see a breakout for another year to year and a half. Fundamentally, the techno babble will increase as we all fork ourselves. This will also take about a year to resolve. In the meantime play the panic bounce. There's at least $100 (50 to 100%) of oscillation in this bouncing bottom. Not a bad way to make a living. The Panic Zone has not changed for over a year. Top is around $275 to $300 bottom is a consistent $160 all though technically the zone bottoms at $135. The real panic selling is below $218.
One additional note on my analysis philosophy. I have read most of the trending commentaries for the last week. Nearly all focus on the technical chart patterns. Some are good and sound while others fly off the handle with wild ass predictions without regard to the underlying reasons for the chart movement. Investments are made by people. Automated trading algorithms are implemented by people. People make decisions based on their feelings. News, commerce, politics, war, software programmers that can't agree, all come into play as why an instrument value moves one way or another. Chart tools are useful for measuring population dynamics. They do not create the dynamic. Just because a chart pattern looks like a W does not guarantee the next action is Z or V or ABC. The most recent price collapse was a gleaming example of this. It was not created by a technical pattern. It was a market reaction to a public discussion of the hash chain which scared the bejusus out of some big investors. Fundamentals matter. Sometimes they matter more than the Technicals.
There is one more fundamental that I forgot to mention in the original commentary. The US-DOJ is about to dump 40000 more BTC into the market in December. They will probably sell it to the "highest" bidder and it will be a lump transfer. That person may or may not start dumping on the exchanges. I personally do not think it will be a fair auction and that the most politically connected will get dibs at a fire-sale price. I do not have any facts as to who it will be but, I would speculate, they live in NY and are well known to us all. No matter. This action will add to the resistance ceiling of around $280 to $300.
rivet.popper
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Buy litecoin. No fork problems and its faster anyway.
investigator
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I have noticed a TradingView bug. There is no way to chart a litecoin to BTC ratio. If you know of a work around, let me know.
investigator
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Nevermind - they gave it a symbol. I didn't notice at first.
investigator
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Long term LTC is a pretty sick chart. The LTC/BTC ratio shows a very recent trend break to the down side for LTC with perhaps a 50% down side risk relative to BTC (at the moment). I don't know the fundamentals for this. Does anyone know why investors are exiting the LTC market? Looks like you could make money on the volatility but a long term buy and hold could easily be a disaster. That also may be true for BTC in the end but at least for now there is a solid support bottom.
Esper
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I honestly think that an increasing number of investors are realizing that Bitcoin is very hard to compete with and therefore the better longterm investment.
There is one more fundamental that I forgot to mention in the original commentary. The US-DOJ is about to dump 40000 more BTC into the market in December. They will probably sell it to the "highest" bidder and it will be a lump transfer. That person may or may not start dumping on the exchanges. I personally do not think it will be a fair auction and that the most politically connected will get dibs at a fire-sale price. I do not have any facts as to who it will be but, I would speculate, they live in NY and are well known to us all. No matter. This action will add to the resistance ceiling of around $280 to $300.