BITFINEX:BTCUSD Using my method of TA we are about to start a new phase once this interval phase is finished. Mt method of TA a new phase always stars downwards, the drop is dependent on where we are in the cycle and which phase its parent phases are on. On this particular phase we are on the up side of its parent so the drop here i am expecting not to be so big and after that we should see some extremely bullish price action. But i just want to call every major move up and down one at a time. So here i have been short since 8400, i had planned to get in at 8500 but it briefly hit 8500 while i slept. So this TA i am sure of enough to be making a trade on and i have gone short myself here. If we reach 8600 the trade is no longer valid
You're good on this. As a matter of fact, I think you would be good to let that short run after reaching 7300. Most think we have started the bull run and are just in a correction. The overlook the psychology of the reversal and see the V dip as a reversal to start the second hump, which I see as incorrect. This is the backside of the true third hump of the cycle. It will be short (one month), then the big bull run everyone thinks we started will truly begin. I would even go as far to say that you could tighten your stop to 8200 and drag it down at each step of the bear staircase we are about to start making. Against the grain thinking, I know. It doesn't mean I'm wrong.
chris-abc
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@andoverg, Thank you very much, thats very kind of you to say. Been on a bit of a role recently, its probably just one of those streaks, but i do like to think it is because I am getting better. Actually since i started developing my own type of TA method i have been getting calls better and better the more i discover and refine how i am trying to analyse the charts. So we will see if it continues but thank you anyway. With regards to your comment on letting it run. I have exited my shorts from 7550 down to 7450, I had revised that 7300 up because i hadnt taken into account some important support. I agree we are not in bull run at the moment. If you check my other idea i mention a transition phase. So a small phase between 2 big ones. So ppl might think it a bullish matker bu time this phase is done but when we go into a the next big phase it will probably surprise ppl and have them shouting "manipulation"
andoverg
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@chris-abc, I had seen several of your charts. I am not sure I understand it all, but you seem to know what you are looking at and what you are looking for. Time will definitely make you better. I have no idea how I was even able to make a dollar 3 months ago. Keep at it! I'll be following.
chris-abc
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@andoverg, Thanks. And yeah i arent very good at explaining things sometimes, so explaining a TA that is based on phases and time all moving each other on many time intervals is kinda hard to articulate so ppl know what i am meaning. Anyway i am still trying to understand it all myself so prob its best if i just do like you say "keep at it" until i have a fuller picture. But yes trading is terribly difficult. I have only been trading 2 years but i have to say first 18 months was a disaster
CPA4PAY
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I disagree. Its a pipedream for the people that didnt buy in earlier. We go that low and the bears are taking over. You can cross your fingers and hope for 7.8k at this point, but its not gonna get any better.
chris-abc
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@CPA4PAY, I bought in at 5900, if you look at my other ideas you will see i was calling a bottom between 5500-5600 before we got down there. My last traade was also 7300 to 8320, i even said 8500 was its max but got out earlier just to be sure as was close enough. I shorted then from 8400. So not really dreaming of trying to get in as i trade the big moves, dont see much point in holding btc while it drops. But as for the TA, yeah might be wrong but we will see
CPA4PAY
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@chris-abc, IMO, the main two reasons why that wont happen is (1) itll summon back the bear momentum and if it doesnt (2) it'll allow people who didnt get in to buy cheap which doesnt make sense from the MMs perspectives since they already have their positions set.
chris-abc
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@CPA4PAY, I TA in a very different way to others, i do not consider anything other than the cycle of the phases through many different intervals, with each set of phases complete it ticks the phase above to the next section, all phases are a partly completed pattern that draws nearer to completion on each phase. I believe
all markets are a natural phenomenon and all share the same behaviour although chaotic as it seems. So making sense isnt actually something that i factor in, In fact since June when i started developing my own TA method my trading has improved unrecognisable, and it is because what i have discovered is actually the reason that every TA method works. I Even called a cup handle forming even before it made the first candel of it, reason being is because i understand how why and when every elliot wave, every head and shoulder cup handle rounded bottom....If you are interested in hearing more about my methods i will be happy to explain more, it is truly mind boggling once you see the markets in a multi dimensional moving developing way rather than just a one dimensional 2d flat chart. If we hit 7300-7600 in the next 6 days no doubt you might be more interested to know what i am banging on about....as they say results speak for themselves :)