Hi guy's, we saw a minor bounce higher for Bitcoin but that is not enough to call it a reversal sign (yet). It is not a bullish impulse on daily- 4hr - 1hr time frame. This does not mean it can't go higher from here, it means that we need to wait and see for a little longer. If we make a minor correction (indicated by means of that small arrow lower in the chart) we can trade the continuation higher of this bullish minor bounce and take it from there. We simply need too many candles from here before being able to call it a bullish impulse of whatever degree. Timing is key in the market and my style is not to trade small moves so keep that in mind when interpreting my charts.
Komen
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I received some questions regarding what I determine to be a reversal. I am looking for a reversal to take out 20.000. However, we need a bigger degree reversal than what we see so far (the fact that we did not see that yet most likely means price will come back down before it will make the real move higher). Therefore we take it step by step because giving potential patterns long term will bias more traders than help them in my experience.
First possible trade we called was:
'If we make a minor correction (indicated by means of that small arrow lower in the chart) we can trade the continuation higher of this bullish minor bounce and take it from there.'
We saw that minor 3 wave correction followed by a bullish continuation. Key to understand is; so far, that minor move higher is only a continuation of that minor bullish leg from 9200 low, not a reversal sign all together yet.
So calling potential trade set-ups is what I do and by managing them accordingly you are able to stay in pretty much all winning trades regardless what the pattern will be. (Remember my first call for that move lower. That short resulted in more than 6/1 risk/reward)
The following charts show an example of two high probability scenario's still on the table., none of them are a set-up yet for the long term bullish continuation.
Komen
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Hi guy's keep in mind that I said; 'we have not a bullish impulse reversal (yet)'. Short term we had that minor buy continuation trade last week as described. Then I updated the chart after that minor continuation and showed that it still did not mean anything significant. We had basically 2 scenario's as you can see in the previous chart. I executed based on that plan for a short term sell. This position is currently at break-even. Let's see what's next but understanding fractals is key in understanding when to expect a reversal. I will therefore update once things start to move and try to emphasize when the real move is most likely about to happen.
No juice for any bullish moves. Most likely headed down for the next few days.
Wave-Trader
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Nice tim
glaazie
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Same view here bullish move is a abc for a wave 4 or we are now in wave 1 of 3 im selling my postion once the the setup presents itself and buy back near the end of wave 5
Thnx for the update always nice to see some views of a man who understand structure the best !!
marcotini
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So... you want to see what you want to see from the chart. Good to know.
TimStuyts
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@marcotini, yes for now I manage this minor buy and take it from there. I am fine if it stops me out at break even because I target the real move and not these small moves for risk/reward of 1 to 1. Basically if we see on 1hr time frame what we saw on the 15 min time frame in terms of that 3 wave correction, we can buy again but then based on a 1hr time frame move. Up to that moment both scenario's I showed are very possible.
marcotini
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Ok now which chart do you look at? Daily, like @alanmasters does? He for example want to see that the trend is down?
Every time both scenario are possibile, it can go up or down. The analysis of 3 wave can be ok but it's not necessary to wait the 5th to go in.
TimStuyts
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@marcotini, I understand your point, hence my clues of what I am looking for and take it step by step. I look at all time frames and read the fractals within. However I like to see daily-4hr and 1hr line up for the highest probability set-up. That is not the case by a long shot at this moment.
What you will see if you compare me to others, is that I'm more accurate than others and therefore have a higher success-rate and higher risk/reward. That also means that there are no general things I look at if there are several scenario's perfectly valid. That will only lower my probability for success. If I am looking for a certain thing (like taking out that low at 11065 within the corrective structure) I will mention it, other than that I keep my options open and don't try to cut corners so I can convince myself to enter a trade.
I will cut my profits short if I base my observations on a specific time frame or use those kind of guidelines (this does not mean that less experienced traders should do the same as I). Personally, I am perfectly fine trading against a major trend (as shown by means of my previous Bitcoin short).
Trading the way I described took you in the short term buy trade which should be a risk free trade now. Next step is; we take it from there based on the scenario's I described. I will upload a video later today to my YouTube channel and go over Bitcoin as well. Maybe that clarifies it a little more.
But key for all trades I take is; I only trade what's best. There are so many instruments out there and I don't have to trade a specific instrument because there is no such thing as missing a trade. Either it does what I want and I execute based on my rules or it is not good enough based on probability * risk/reward and I don't trade it.
evactrade
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Thank You Tim!
VinodSharmab4
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Following you recently, hope for the best - Tim
MuMPiTz
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can you update once it becomes clear where its going and recommend entries ?