What I'm missing here, and it's a very impressive bit of analysis, is what the catalyst would be to wipe out 80% of let's say a $600 billion market cap by then? When BTC was still in the land of geeks and libertarians, ok, but now all the institutional money will be locked in, and serious issues will result if such a crash ensues, I struggle to see what can come along and create that level of panic, this late in the game.
I would not be surprised. Just hard to picture it right now....
augustL
⋅
@heisginger, The ability to naked short with futures... If bankers have accumulated BTC through say, "printing" of USDT on oh I dunno, Bitfinex for example. They can sell the BTC on the exchanges, and profit from the decline through the futures market. Yes the futures market is not settled in cash, but in this instance it can be very damaging to BTC but also Cryptos in general.
augustL
⋅
@augustL, Pardon. "Yes the futures market IS settled in cash"
VovaMihalovich
⋅
Bitcoin will reach 20,000$-21,000$ by January 2018
ansonphong
⋅
This is a sobering analysis, and very likely a result I would count on. The institutional money coming in recently will have some rigid stop-losses, they aren't your average hodlers, so I can see there is a glass floor developing now, where if enough of a crash penetrates the first layer of support it could go into free fall for a while as stop-losses are hit. There is a fairly impressive buying support around 8K on GDAX, which would really cushion any free fall, although know knows how those orders would be affected in the case of a quick decline.
Nature repeats patterns, and you can see the pattern of parabolic BTC growth int he past definitely ends with a very sharp cliff. This time I don't expect it will be much different, except that I expect the buyback after a crash will be much quicker.
hcoder
⋅
One of the best Bitcoin price analysis ever. Thank you.
peacewolfus
⋅
@hcoder, are you sure? Yo mat want to revise this comment later
peacewolfus
⋅
I meant "you may"
hcoder
⋅
@peacewolfus,It's one of the best.Anyway everything's possible.
I would not be surprised. Just hard to picture it right now....