Are you a HODLER? Hype turn into fear in the blink of an eye!
One second you think you've made a great investment, the next fear kicks in.
How long do we go down before you get scared? This is a continuation on my bubble idea earlier, where I shorted at 9700.
Fundamentals
I have already expressed my thoughts on fundamentals in my earlier idea, please check it out if that's of interest.
Yesterday we had a big drop in the crypto market. Alts went down harder than BTC. That tells me there is a lot of doubt in the market right now and there may be some major crashes ahead.
Technical
Previous chart was basically just the standard bubble theory added on the top of the Bitcoin chart.
This time I am going deeper into the technicals, looking at how this could play out and what I want do to.
I believe the top is in. Major selling, exchanges crashing and altcoin market taking a big hit. We would need A LOT of fresh money to keep this going up, and I don't think its coming in 2017.
Now that could of cours happen but we are in a historical pump and betting on the continuation of this pump has major risk attached. If you are new to the space, I'm sorry to say, but you are way to late.
I am looking at an impulse wave with a real strong fifth wave, but that's crypto for you, the tops can be irrational. That's why I ended up shorting to early, I believed at the time that the wave had gone up more than enough.
Now I think we can see an ABC correction with the launch of futures playing a role.
You may be looking at my targets and thinking hell no. It wont go down so quick, we have used a year on this uptrend!
It may not, but I promise you it's not unrealistic. We have had a year of new people jumping in each day, and slowly we have gone up and up and up. But when things start to go down, all those people now hold BTC and watch the price.
That's the reason markets like this takes long time to build up, and just a few days to crash. When doubt starts to kick in, there is a hoard of holders that bought on the way up, and comperativly few new people entering the space.
Now of cours there will be a lot of profits flowing around in the space, but is it realistic to think those profits will support the price? No. Those profits are now profits for a reason and it wont enter before there's a fire sale.
So how low do we go, where can we expect support? Its usual for the correction from wave 5 to go down somewhere between the 3 and 4th. That's 4970 & 3490.
I am looking to close my short at 5035 USD, and rather add some longs if it goes down to the area between 3 & 4th wave.
We aint getting there tomorrow though, so it's also important to look above and see where we can expect a bounce.
By looking at the fibs I can see heavy support in the 6000 area. That's also where we stopped last time. That's where the A could stop and we get a bounce before futures launch to get the B!
When the futures eventually start trading, shorting kicks in and we can complete the corrective wave and get the C.
Experienced Tip!
You may have noticed yesterday that selling can be difficult under high activity. Now imagine if bad news come out, the crash would be over before you could do anything.
That's why I didnt want to wait for any confirmation before I shorted. It may be impossible when it first happens ;)
How long do we go down before you get scared? This is a continuation on my bubble idea earlier, where I shorted at 9700.
Fundamentals
I have already expressed my thoughts on fundamentals in my earlier idea, please check it out if that's of interest.
Yesterday we had a big drop in the crypto market. Alts went down harder than BTC. That tells me there is a lot of doubt in the market right now and there may be some major crashes ahead.
Technical
Previous chart was basically just the standard bubble theory added on the top of the Bitcoin chart.
This time I am going deeper into the technicals, looking at how this could play out and what I want do to.
I believe the top is in. Major selling, exchanges crashing and altcoin market taking a big hit. We would need A LOT of fresh money to keep this going up, and I don't think its coming in 2017.
Now that could of cours happen but we are in a historical pump and betting on the continuation of this pump has major risk attached. If you are new to the space, I'm sorry to say, but you are way to late.
I am looking at an impulse wave with a real strong fifth wave, but that's crypto for you, the tops can be irrational. That's why I ended up shorting to early, I believed at the time that the wave had gone up more than enough.
Now I think we can see an ABC correction with the launch of futures playing a role.
You may be looking at my targets and thinking hell no. It wont go down so quick, we have used a year on this uptrend!
It may not, but I promise you it's not unrealistic. We have had a year of new people jumping in each day, and slowly we have gone up and up and up. But when things start to go down, all those people now hold BTC and watch the price.
That's the reason markets like this takes long time to build up, and just a few days to crash. When doubt starts to kick in, there is a hoard of holders that bought on the way up, and comperativly few new people entering the space.
Now of cours there will be a lot of profits flowing around in the space, but is it realistic to think those profits will support the price? No. Those profits are now profits for a reason and it wont enter before there's a fire sale.
So how low do we go, where can we expect support? Its usual for the correction from wave 5 to go down somewhere between the 3 and 4th. That's 4970 & 3490.
I am looking to close my short at 5035 USD, and rather add some longs if it goes down to the area between 3 & 4th wave.
We aint getting there tomorrow though, so it's also important to look above and see where we can expect a bounce.
By looking at the fibs I can see heavy support in the 6000 area. That's also where we stopped last time. That's where the A could stop and we get a bounce before futures launch to get the B!
When the futures eventually start trading, shorting kicks in and we can complete the corrective wave and get the C.
Experienced Tip!
You may have noticed yesterday that selling can be difficult under high activity. Now imagine if bad news come out, the crash would be over before you could do anything.
That's why I didnt want to wait for any confirmation before I shorted. It may be impossible when it first happens ;)
Komen:
Wow. It's showing real strength.
0.786 fib held though, for now.
0.786 fib held though, for now.
Komen:
Komen:
Could this be a bulltrap? Yes, but my confidence in this position is getting weaker.
Komen:
It was not! I had to decrease my position with 50% when the fib broke, bought at 10753 USD.
My stop loss is at 13515 USD. Above the 1.618 fib.
We are on our 8th 3D green candle today! There is room to up, but it's getting more dangerous day by day now before futures launch.
My stop loss is at 13515 USD. Above the 1.618 fib.
We are on our 8th 3D green candle today! There is room to up, but it's getting more dangerous day by day now before futures launch.
Dagangan ditutup: hentian tercapai:
Bitcoin literally went higher than most people have dreamed about.
17171 USD was the high, that's sick!
I was premature with short, that is obvious now. Live to learn!
Shorted at 9700 USD, stopped out 50% at 10753 USD and the rest at 13525 USD.
This trade gave me a terrible -17.5%, but could have been worse :)
Very important to stop out when it goes the wrong way.
17171 USD was the high, that's sick!
I was premature with short, that is obvious now. Live to learn!
Shorted at 9700 USD, stopped out 50% at 10753 USD and the rest at 13525 USD.
This trade gave me a terrible -17.5%, but could have been worse :)
Very important to stop out when it goes the wrong way.
Komen:
So what am I thinking about Bitcoin now?
I think we will complete an ABC correction and the area I am looking at is between
I think we will complete an ABC correction and the area I am looking at is between
Komen:
the 0.618 fib of this entire run (10862 USD), and the 0.5 of this last one (11285 USD).
Best case I am looking at is the 0.618 of the last run, at 12674 USD.
I can't short Bitcoin now since I got burned on the last two, so will need to wait for the beartrap.
To make it short, I think we will go down to 11k area until futures start trading.
Then they will push us up again, maybe to 14-15k area and then we can start to go down again, with 6-7k as the lowest target.
Will come out with a chart asap!
Best case I am looking at is the 0.618 of the last run, at 12674 USD.
I can't short Bitcoin now since I got burned on the last two, so will need to wait for the beartrap.
To make it short, I think we will go down to 11k area until futures start trading.
Then they will push us up again, maybe to 14-15k area and then we can start to go down again, with 6-7k as the lowest target.
Will come out with a chart asap!
Komen:
Are we seeing a head and shoulders on Bitcoin?!
Komen:
Bad news from Korea!
news.bitcoin.com/sou...vernment-plans-a-ban
With bearish technicals I have to take a play here.
Entering a short on BTC here at 16150 USD!
news.bitcoin.com/sou...vernment-plans-a-ban
With bearish technicals I have to take a play here.
Entering a short on BTC here at 16150 USD!
Komen:
Oh sorry guys, forgot to update this. But obviously, got stopped out again.
Not having much luck with Bitcoin. I'll just focus on alts :)
Not having much luck with Bitcoin. I'll just focus on alts :)
Komen:
Seeing some dumping now.
Is it just preparing for a bloody weekend? I think so. But I could always be wrong.