To me, if we were going to continue on going parabolic, the price would have completed the inverse H+S-6.28% we saw forming going into the weekend and finished this week off strong with a huge wick. When we dumped to $615 or so it seems that option was eliminated. So, it seems we gets some more down, then the huge short squeeze comes right around the halving. My bottom trend line would have us testing around $505, but I have the arrow going below to around $480 as bitcoin loves shake people out with panic going below important levels before recovering. The top trendline of the triangle is drawn from the all time high back in nov 13'...
Also, if you are wondering why there is such a huge wick down on that 1d candle from a few days ago--ignore it-- it seems to be a glitch in the data from Tradingview.
Komen
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Waiting for huobi to break 4100 or so, looks like a H + S: imgur.com/UUcUkEG ...if it breaks down then there is real potential for this to happen, while such wild swings down and then up may looks extreme, consider that bitcoin has just emerged from its longest period of stability EVER when it was trading in the 4xx's before the big break out...so that coupled with the much anticipated halving and global economic uncertainty--and it seems more realistic. Lets see if we break the neckline down...
Komen
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Just looking at past price action, it would be something similar (on the 1 week chart) to what happened before the first rise to $500 (nov' 15) whereby the price went from a high of $317 to a low of $196, and then all the way up to $500,.
Komen
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The break out of the triangle upwards above 4300cny this morning was pretty bullish, I was expecting the dump to have begun by now, so it looks like this idea is very unlikely to occur.
Komen
fineregex
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you saw $196 in november 2015??
ltc-joe
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I'm just saying that this idea would have similar price action to that time period, but honestly I am becoming bullish now, I was expecting the dump to have begun by now and instead we just broke 4300 cny in China. So it's starting to seem unlikely.