This is for my followers, a quick chart to draw a clear picture of this irrational market that killed the megabull and started this nonstop sell-off due to the PBOC imposing regulations on Chinese exchanges to stop illegal insider activities, wash trading and any other form of elicit activities that have been plaguing the exchanges etc.
It was pretty clear that exchange insiders were aware of the PBOC incoming announcement (before it was announced publicly to us) and hence they started the sell off after breaking the ATH on Chinese exchanges. We can hope that the PBOC's exchange regulations will finally put an end at these years of illegal activities so Bitcoin can really start to shine with less manipulation.
Levels (support and resistance) on chart depicting a simple descending wedge.
Short-term: Expecting some more chop/sideways short-term then a quick retest of $680-650. That dotted yellow line represents the old major bull neckline of 2015 (very important for it to hold else we will have bearish repercussion long-term). Once we hit $680-660 I forecast that the 1D RSI will be roughly around 23-27 in the oversold area which represent my perfect buying opportunity indicator as you know.
Long-term: Expect to bottom at 660s roughly. By year end around October, 8 2017 (235D Cycle) I expect a retest of the ATH if not higher targets ($1500 or $2000)
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Dagangan aktif
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Komen
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The action from last settlement post Okcoin settlement looks bullish. We made a higher low with a potential double bottom with a very volatile reaction from it. I just wanted to warn everyone that this falling wedge can break anytime to the upside, so please watch carefully especially now as were getting closer to the top side.
If we break down and make a lower low below $774 stamp than a visit to $660 could be very well in the works. I will update however in time if we get to that point.
Komen
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Seeing five green 5H candles in a row, seems the bulls are in control, and were close to say the bottom was in.
The falling wedge broke up on Chinese charts already earlier in the day, hence I am inclined to say that the wedge will break up as well shortly on US Charts. Once this happens, then expect the next main resistance to be at $872-878 Stamp.
Komen
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The falling wedge on US charts ended up breaking up as well, but we went to sideways on the 4H timeframe for 2-3 days then the 4H Bollinger squeeze just resolved up. If we can break 5760cny or $839 USD then our next target would be the previous support turned resistance at: 6100cny or $872 USD before we get a pull back.
Komen
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Just to be clear $660 visit is out of the picture unless we get another unexpected PBOC news again that will drive the market down again irrationally.
However, the PBOC intervention is good news for all traders as manipulation of volume, and price by Chinese insiders on exchanges has already stopped and this is extremely bullish for everyone.
1- so how do you spot when the next megabull would start?
2- normally when u do a high and low prediction one of them is 80% spot on.... please do this more :)
3- bitcoin price range around 2020 and 2024? LOL i know, i know but gotta ask about how you see the general trend for the Hodlers
4- Thank you we appreciate the charts
bunzmc
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@ju5tin, @BuyBitcoin.WS - Is this like after the 2013 bubble where we dropped down to the 500's but rose again too 900's from a little bull-trap? You think we still bullish long term?
BitcoinGuru
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@bunzmc, we are not starting a bear market similar to 2014 (after the 2013 bull run).
in my opinion we will consolidate within the current big yearly ascending triangle and break out for another bull run by August 2017 (short term). and long term we are still very bullish.
BitcoinGuru
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@ju5tin, I apologize for the late reply, see below for answers:
1- Most of the time it coincides with the next 235D cycle. The next cycle is due for October 9 2017 that's when I believe we will have another megabull (worse case scenario).
2- I tend to offer bearish and bullish targets as it is always good to look at both sides of the market. Although some mock this, I believe its a good practice for traders to do this.
3- Purely speculation: But with the recent PBOC crack down on Chinese exchanges and adoption of 0.2%fee we need to wait and see how the Bitcoin market behaves. I am expecting more stability and more upside due to adoption and less downside potential. Anyways for 2020 the lowest we should see is $4000 USD. By $2024 the lowest we should see is $8000 USD (but again i think we should be way above these levels)
Your welcome, nothing makes me more happy than spreading the word and contributing to the Bitcoin adoption.
bysteven
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Well, doesn't look like an upside outbreak so far - the movement stopped at 830 which is also the 50% retracement of the last fall. This is a strong reaction, but China is still weak. Currently it looks rather lika a sideways movement around the 800 mark. Could it slowly move outside the wedge this way or does it confirm your short-term bearish scenario?
BitcoinGuru
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@bysteven,yes that's exactly what happened we broke out from the wedge slowly through sideways. It is very normal that after $300 + drop shakeout for Bitcoin to go to sideways / re-accumulation for days or even weeks before we see another bull run
ChristianGG
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So if I have bitcoin now (0.3) averaged price bought at about $850 - should I sell now and try to buy back in the $660? Not asking for advice - just your opinion, is that something that would be considered smart or stupid in your opinion?
BitcoinGuru
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@ChristianGG, since you bought at $850 and have not sold, I suggest you hold for now as the current level could be a potential bottom and you do not want to sell the bottom here. Although the path is not depicted on the graph, we could break the wedge's top edge at these levels and retrace back up - but too early to tell now. I will try to update the chart here once I have time.
kaka900
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I had seen your post that we'll go down soon. How low do you predict? I ask because I keep my coins already 3 years. I had seen they change value from 1k per coin to 250usd. I'm quite worried this might happen again when there will be trend reversal and we'll become bearish.
realSatoshiNakamoto
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So now we go up to 900USD and then back up to 1000USD
2- normally when u do a high and low prediction one of them is 80% spot on.... please do this more :)
3- bitcoin price range around 2020 and 2024? LOL i know, i know but gotta ask about how you see the general trend for the Hodlers
4- Thank you we appreciate the charts