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IvanLabrie
15 Jul 2017 pukul 02.22

BTCUSD: Wait for the decline to end 

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD1D
Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBitstamp

Huraian

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The daily BTCUSD charts shows a 20 day downtrend signal is active, and the target is as low as 1790.02 by July 29th. If we don't hit this level on time, or if we hit it too soon, it might be a terrific chance to add to longs by then. I think this aligns quite well with the timing for fundamental events. It is likely that Segwit2x is supported and Segwit locked in by that date, before the August 1st deadline is reached, thus preventing a chain split and rescuing the Bitcoin bulls, albeit in the intermediate term -before the 3 month period ends, and the hard fork becomes mandatory.
If that is the case, I can already anticipate the hard fork busting the bubble, which I think, might see BTCUSD hit close to $6009 at the very top, before correcting/consolidating for 2 years, a la 2013 peak. This might happen by November, which matches the Segwit2x hard fork schedule, if it comes to pass as described.

I'm long BTC, and looking to add once this downtrend signal fails, or even if we hit the target. It might be wise to hedge your BTC exposure in the meantime, for instance, being long ETCBTC, or outright short BTCUSD (I favor the former over the latter, since it is a possibility that this support holds and the short sellers 'fall short' of their expectations in time).The hedge is optional though, since ultimately, long term charts are bullish for BTC. Sentiment being extremely negative isn't particularly exciting for shorts in BTC either, I think this pressure on price will be short lived, so, better wait the reccomended time to add violently to longs.

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.

Komen

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medium.com/@jimmysong/segwit2x-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-2mb-hard-fork-27749e1544ce

Komen

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Range expansion target hit, we will probably proceed to hit my target in time...I will add to longs there and then wait. I will add my comments from the KHL chat here.

Komen

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ah what a shame
I think overall I got it figured out
the move in BTCUSD
a startup raised insane amounts of btc and eth
Tezos
they completed their crowdsale before this drop accelerated
so it falls even on negative sentiment due to that.
Also we have the daily 20 bar mode downtrend
target is 1790
which is the REBZ75/REBZ2 level in the 2 month timeframe
-which is the one with the biggest T@M signal in it-

so far, no RgExp bar in that timeframe got 'stopped'
the uptrend time for that timeframe aligns perfectly with the life cycle of the upgrade that might gain traction for BTC
Segwit2x
they will probably manage to activate the uptrend with miner support, by July 29th...
which is the time the daily downtrend expires
so:
daily downtrend target is REBZ2 in 2-month tf, time for it coincides with fundamental events, sentiment is negative, startup Tezos cashing out their raised BTC and ETH
other coins are not as affected which further solidifies the idea that Tezos is the pressure on the market now

so far, no RgExp bar in that timeframe got 'stopped'
the uptrend time for that timeframe aligns perfectly with the life cycle of the upgrade that might gain traction for BTC
Segwit2x
they will probably manage to activate the uptrend with miner support, by July 29th...
which is the time the daily downtrend expires
so:
daily downtrend target is REBZ2 in 2-month tf, time for it coincides with fundamental events, sentiment is negative, startup Tezos cashing out their raised BTC and ETH
other coins are not as affected which further solidifies the idea that Tezos is the pressure on the market now

Komen

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so far, no RgExp bar in that timeframe got 'stopped'
the uptrend time for that timeframe aligns perfectly with the life cycle of the upgrade that might gain traction for BTC
Segwit2x
they will probably manage to activate the uptrend with miner support, by July 29th...
which is the time the daily downtrend expires
so:
daily downtrend target is REBZ2 in 2-month tf, time for it coincides with fundamental events, sentiment is negative, startup Tezos cashing out their raised BTC and ETH
other coins are not as affected which further solidifies the idea that Tezos is the pressure on the market now

Komen

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and the very obvious technical pattern and general fear of the unknown when it comes to the upgrades
truth is: I should have held on to my short until the weekly showed 10 weeks after the 10 week rally expired like I envisioned...but caught up trying to fade sentiment, when there are other forces at play (Tezos startup, they give 0 fugs about sentiment they just wanna cash out)
coindesk.com/232-million-tezos-blockchain-record-setting-token-sale/

Komen

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For reference, everyone hated me when I published this:

Komen

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The good thing is my drawdown isn't significant, despite the decline in my holdings, since my exposure isn't too big and I have been actively managing it.
Let's be patient and wait to add to longs at the target, once it's clear it bottomed. A shorter term downtrend like this offers the best entry, to join a longer term uptrend.

Komen

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BTCEUR might be rehashing a situation like the Bitfinex hack crash

Komen

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Dagangan aktif

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Got rid of hedges and added to longs I now have a full position. The bottom is in. Last: 1906

Komen

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The lowest low is already reached possibly.
If 1790 isn't hit by the 29th or sooner, or if we move back over 2525, then the downtrend was a failure, which is bullish.

Komen

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One possibility: BTCUSD chart

Komen

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Excellent bottoming action in BTCUSD
1h is starting an uptrend here.

Komen

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Trend AnalysisChart PatternsBeyond Technical AnalysisBitcoin (Cryptocurrency)BTCUSDtimeatmodergmovkeyhiddenlevelscontrarian4life
Komen
cryptoctl
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@IvanLabrie could well be that I've missed it in one of your last posts, but what are the fundamentals for ETC? or are you based on pure technical analytics in there? thanks
IvanLabrie
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@cryptoctl, ETC, it has no risky implementation of unproven software unlike ETH or BTC.
cryptoctl
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@IvanLabrie, less risky implementation would maybe take out some volatility. but if that is all to ETC I'd rather stick with pure technical analysis ;-) innovation tends to be positive for fundamentals
nakov
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@IvanLabrie, maybe, which means stable price, but no momentum upwards. I agree with margin long of a highly prospective alt vs ETH/BTC/USD, but I think there are better coins with higher upside. E.g. STRAT, SC, ANS, SYS. Based on fundamentals.
UnknownUnicorn1016020
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How did you come up with the $1790 target?
IvanLabrie
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@ForgottenInsights, Time @ Mode trend analysis. It gives you a time and price target for a decline or rally, when taking off from an accumulation or distribution zone.
UnknownUnicorn1016020
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@IvanLabrie, that does not tell my anything. Could you be more specific? Something I could google for?
IvanLabrie
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@ForgottenInsights, it's a proprietary trading strategy. I learned from @timwest here.
KesterWong
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Thanks for the analysis Ivan, as always.

But I tend to believe that ETC might also get a devaluation when BTC price goes down, judging by past ETC/BTC performance.
Wouldn't it be better to stick with fiat for now, and then enter ETC (since it could potentially outperform BTC in tandem)?
IvanLabrie
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@KesterWong, both are fine in my opinion, if ETC suffers a decline it will be smaller than BTC this time I think. It is strongly accumulated.
Can you point out a previous decline where ETCBTC went down too?
Lebih