I am suspicious that we could now be forming the right shoulder. Short term target $17000. I will then sell and wait, watching closely. The bloodbath would be devastating. Then followed by a massive rally like we have not seen yet. From $6000 to $50,000 in one year!!!
Komen
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Didn't look like it had the strength to go to 17k so I sold at 15.5k. We will now be testing that neckline over the next couple of days which also happens to be our 50% Fib retrace. I have been expecting an 80%+ correction soon. This could be it if that neckline breaks before mid-Jan.
Komen
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Crossed back over and above our uptrend line. Could hit 17k before the new year after all! I'm a short term bull above this line and so, I've bought back in at $13700 with a short term target of 17k. Stops are at the neckline.
Komen
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I may get stopped out tonight at 12.4k or I may wake up tomorrow to find we're at 17k. It'll be a Christmas surprise. Will I get coal in my stocking or more Bitcoin? We'll find out tomorrow! Merry Christmas.
Komen
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Well, I didn't get stopped out. On the other hand, we've not reached 17k (more precisely 16.6k) yet either. Still have my eyes on that short term target. However, nerves are getting shaky. Once we hit that, the selling will be quick. Brace yourselves!
Short term target still 16.6k if hits that soon before the new year. Then sell.
Jan 10th re-buy target 8k.
Komen
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FIRST TARGET REACHED! Sold yesterday at around 16k. The risk reward was not worth my holding onto.
NEXT TARGETS: 6-10k I will probably start buying back somewhere around 10k. We should bounce quite a bit there. I may look for a quick trade here. Buy at 10k and sell at 13k depending on price, time and pattern.
Then down to 8k I will buy more.
At 6k (if we get there) I will most assuredly be ALL IN!
Good luck traders and HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Komen
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I feel I've stated the 6-10k buy zones too confidently here. Remember, these targets are never sure things. And unless/until our neckline at $12600 is first broken, we WILL NOT get there. Watch closely. This will need to happen within a week or so. If it does not, you may scratch those 6-10k targets and jump on the BULL train again.
Komen
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I published idea one week ago. Although, everything has played out as predicted so far, the nail in the coffin hasn't been hammered yet. Use caution if you are still trading here. We should know in the next before the new year whether we can break that neckline or not. If we don't break that neckline my next buy targets at 10k, 8k, and 6k will not be reached. Good luck traders and Happy New Year!
Komen
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Here's what I am currently looking at on the hourly. If we break up, I think my head and shoulders pattern will become invalidated. If we break down, look out below!
Komen
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You will know when/if the downtrend has reversed if we break above AND CONFIRM (confirmation is the key here) the following downtrend line on the 4h. In correlation to this downtrend line, you will see a similar downtrend line on the RSI. These must be broken AND confirmed to signify a reversal. If they are not 10k, 8k, and 6k are still targets before mid-January.
Once mid-January comes, I don't care what the charts tell me, I will be a buyer again! Time cycle will over-ride chart patterns at this point.
Komen
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A breakout is occurring! Buy ins can start now but you should also wait for a confirmation candle to appear before you place your full portion in. I will update again once I see the confirmation candle appear.
Good luck traders!
Komen
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Caution should still be exercised as we do not have our confirmation candle yet. Pace yourself and manage your risks please. I have seen some nasty head-fakes in past history. You must be cognizant of this possibility. Watch your levels and put in your stops if you are buying this breakout already without our next confirmation candle.
Komen
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Looks very bullish. I will be closing this post. Our first target of 17k was achieved. The second lower targets of 10k, 8k, and 6k were not.
To the moon we go!
Komen
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One more comment/warning to all those still following this idea. Once again I would like to take this opportunity to warn you. Be careful. I know I closed this post and my last comment respected the bulls, but again, I did warn of some nasty head-fakes in past history. I have been reading more and looking at other people's ideas, knowing that I still have so much to learn, and have read that you MUST be careful when you have a breakout and bull flag on a descending triangle. We have have broken out of a descending triangle and formed a bullish pennant. Historical probability indicates that bull flags such as this will fail after breaking up and out of a descending triangle. You must recognize and respect this statistic.
Trade carefully friends! We still could be forming that right shoulder that I warned about before Christmas. And we still could hit those lower targets after all!
Komen
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Today's price action is proof (and a learning lesson for me) that sometimes you just have to trust your initial instinct and ideas and have the patience to allow the time for them to play out correctly.
Easier said than done. But today's touch of $6000 was all the confirmation and proof that I needed.
I believe we touched our low today. Maximum capitulation. Now on to $50,000!
Thanks for your last comment! Let's learn together...
ms3050
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uh, volume is too low for that to be a head and shoulders. Look at volume. Volume at the head is down lower than volume at the shoulders. This is an extended flat correction @phil.steuerwald
Also, this is the fifth time we've had a 30%+ correction. If it didn't happen sooner or later I'd think something was wrong.
Msnp05
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should we sell ALTS now and sit on BTC ?
stewdamus
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@Msnp05, I mean that seems to be the historical pattern. Not saying that it will play out like that again (i.e.- the new coins coming the Coinbase/GDAX), but most alts do suffer while BTC turns on it's rockets. So, it's definitely not a bad strategy to sell alts. But I'd also be careful about going all in BTC. Maybe sell alts, buy a bit more BTC, and sit on some CASH as well?