Just a quick one, as monitoring the general BTCUSD trend to inform my context for altcoins markets
BTC has formed a nice triangle with responsive supports, which showed initial potential for consolidation and move up.
However, strong failure of final support suggests the bears may have broken through, possibly hitting residual supports for longer term traders still in place from the original trend lines (may be coincidental, but raising for discussion as the trend is clearly in line, and marked in light blue for reference).
As such, we may now be hitting the lower restraints of the longer term traders - my view is that a second bounce off of 13,500 could signal a reversal if the market has the appetite and the longer term traders respond. However, if this line is broken we could see the trend continue downwards over the next few days, with the possibility of consolidation around 13,000-12,800.
Opinion not advice - comments welcome
Komen
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After hitting the final support just under 13900, a strong breakout through the upper support as the minute traders fall out of the market and the supports fall away. A real test of momentum now to see if we experience a recovery past previous peaks at 15000 and 15400 and buy outs at T1 for those trading on fib rules
i defo think a shitcoin crisis can happen soon and a lot flows into BTC
HODLBro
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@thedude73, lets hope not... so many shit coins out there, but a few that might make it to the mainstream - with a resurgent BTC it will be hard to maintain a strong altcoin market in all but the strongest coins, but once Bitcoin peaks again, we could see another explosion in altcoins as people restructure their funds/holdings - peaks and troughs - buy in during a crisis and you could make a killing....
thedude73
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@HODLBro, my main hodl is on btc. little bit on binance/kucoin also for the low market cap buut btc is the only fully established coin from what i've seen since May (when i finally got my shit together)
HODLBro
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@thedude73, not a bad strategy to be honest considering the volatility of altcoins, but I always like to try and grow my holding in the shorter term where I can (alt coins in your portfolio could help this, especially when coins such as ARN can surge 450% over 48 hours on an interesting roadmap and whitepaper)
@robertjulius, helps to manage the true value of the fund in terms of fiat (most people trade BTC for Altcoins, but if BTC is mooning as it could do soon, then alt coins would trend down against the BTC value surge, and we could see a draw of volume from alt coins to BTC), as ultimately this is the value most people attach to buying power (in the end, you want to buy a lambo and I doubt they will be accepting bitcoins unless you strategy is to HODL to the grave...)
In the end, most alt coins exchanges are just a way of growing your BTC value. If you BTC value is growing above the rate of your Altcoin portfolio, then you are destroying value. If your BTC value is crashing, it is also working against the gains you could make depending on how you have structured an alt coin portfolio based on BTC.
robertjulius
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@HODLBro, once i read this five more times i'll understand how sometimes going into fiat helps me grow my total lambo purchasing power.
HODLBro
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@robertjulius, haha sorry will simplify but basically in some circumstances when BTC is falling, you are correct - its more that people can get fooled thinking they are making loads of cash by buying surges in altcoin using BTC, when actually if BTC is falling faster against the dollar than they can grow their BTC holding, ultimately, they would have made more money just buying some dollars....
This is less important for people who are HODLing for the long term, as they miss out the market cycles, but for those day trading furiously from BTC to Altcoins and back to BTC, they can't really judge how good a fund manager they are unless they relate it back to fiat.... atleast for now until crypto decentralises the world ;)
Its less about the lambo, and more about how long it takes you to get there :)