Bitcoin
Panjang

The good news and the bad news..

185
So, it seems we were not on Wave 3, and Wave 2 did not end at $8250.

Subwave A of Wave 2 ended at $8250, which means that we just finished Subwave B of Wave 2 at $9070 and Subwave C and therefore Wave 2 will probably end around $7900.

The good news is this: now that you know this, you can keep reducing your stop order buys as the price decreases (in times like this when you don't know the bottom, arrange your buys as stop orders, so that if the price jumps up for some reason over night - then you've bought back your BTC at a cheaper price), and Wave 3 will now end higher.

The rules of Elliot Wave is that Wave 4 cannot enter Wave 1. Wave 1 ended at $9150, which means that Wave 3 has to end much higher - I'm guessing $9700 -10k, to give Wave 4 enough room to end higher than $9150.

It is what it is. For amateur traders, I think the best you can do with BTC is buy and sell using stop orders and stop losses - because it's so hard to predict where BTC price will go.

BTC really really obeys bear/bull flags. Every time I've been uncertain, I drew trend lines and every time there was a bear/bull flag - BTC price will behave predictably.

Drawing channels is useful for margin trading - I don't recommend using them for swing traders. BTC cross channels all the time, often for a little bit before going back in the channel - I find it really unreliable.

Elliot Wave is very good for determining where to put your stop losses in, but at times like this where the wave count is uncertain, you have to rely on bear/bull flags to determine hour by hour which way the price is going.

The wave count will for sure be confirmed if the price drops below $8250 or goes above $9150. That's a very large range to lose all your money, but it looks like we're on a subwave C going down to me, so put in your stop order buys, and keep decreasing the price as the price drops.

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