BTCUSD update: The 9208 support level is still in play as price action unfolds as a spinning top formation (at the moment). It is too early to call this a bullish reversal, but price is in a high probability area for such a scenario. If the market produces a spinning top like the one visible at the moment, it will then complete an inside bar formation.
Candlestick patterns alone can appear anywhere and often do not offer any special information about the balance of power going on inside the order flow that shapes the candle by the time it closes. It is the location that makes the formation more actionable and in this case we are at such a location. As I wrote about in my previous report, the 9208 level is the previous swing low, it is slightly below the 9604 level which was a minor .382 support. As long as price stays above this general area, it is indicating strength.
By staying above 9208, the market is maintaining a broader higher low formation and is consolidating on a larger degree. This can even be considered a larger Wave 2 formation if it does not fall apart. The 10288 level is the minor .382 of the recent bearish swing and IF price can close above it, that would be a confirmation that the next bullish swing is more likely in progress.
Keep in mind, what I just wrote is one scenario out of many. Another scenario is price can continue to sell further into the reversal zone which is contained by the 8659 support boundary. This is often where traders get faked into selling longs or worse, sucked into a short position. Can it break lower and keep going, sure, but I believe that to be a less likely scenario because of the overall bullish bias in this market.
In summary, managing a position or timing a swing trade using a chart is about recognizing the meaning of a chart or candlestick pattern in relation to the context of the environment it is appearing within. Price at the moment is still in an area where there is a higher probability that a bullish reversal unfolds. Knowing exactly what that looks like, or know exactly when to take action is a function of experience. Just because I describe a scenario does not mean it will happen, it describes what I want the market to show me if I am to do anything further with the position that I have. I define my own rules that determine how I make decisions, and then I let the market prove itself, or not. By doing this, I am letting the market lead, I am not forcing my own ideas upon it. Opportunities often materialize during the less exciting market environments where the herd gets bored and loses interest.
@marc, I am also very keen on learning how you calculate such accurate, and consistent, support levels.
juansana
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@FritzMurphy, it’s the 78.56% retrace. However I don’t think is gonna hold it. In my opinion we are going all the way to the 7300 support or the 6000.
knowlton23
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Excellent analysis and commentary, as usual.
teslanikola1234
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Hello
Is there any chance You could explain on which time frame is best to look for price action // . Also is there any book or where should I look to learn more about price action and candles ?? //
tHANK yOU VERY MUCH for Your great work :)
dpictx
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@teslanikola1234, Marc has written an ebook, the link is directly below the article.
uros_mlakar
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Marc pls continue with your analysis, since they are one of rare (if not the only one), that make sense, have an educational note, and are always pushing us to think also in our own way... all other TA from other authors that are written in a language "it will be like this, do it like this" are a bullsh.... Those who can not read your views and your experience, should simply be quiet in comments. TNX and BR
samiswilf
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sell off slows? In your dreams. Short this mofo to the ground where it belongs. Long live the dollar.
earvan555
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Timothie_Roggers
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PAT needs to be validated by that fat green volume spike