Happy Wednesday. Today’s analysis will be a bit brief and focus on the activity of the 4H Intraday chart for a potential short setup.
Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the PA continues to remain underneath both the resistance range at the $9,480 price handle and the trendline established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) at the $10,000.00 price handle.
During Phase A, the Secondary Test (ST) of Resistance failed to establish a higher high above the Automatic Reaction (AR) at the $9,580 price handle, which suggests bullish demand in this region continues to remain somewhat soft. Further the volume required to move the PA from the Secondary Test (ST) of Support to the Secondary Test (ST) of resistance was almost three times as much as the volume required to move the PA from the Secondary Test (ST) of Resistance to the first Sign of Weakness (SOW). This would suggest distribution is underway.
Two key takeaways with the 4H Intraday chart: (i) the PA continues to remain solidly underneath the trendline established at the final Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) to the $10,000.00 price handle, and (ii) a series of successive lower lows have opened up, creating a potential Bearish Triple Bottom Breakdown/Downward Breakout of a Bearish Support Line. Both takeaways would suggest a bearish bias when viewing the 4H Intraday Chart.
Should the PA break through the Bearish Support Line at $9,400, the Target Price for the Breakdown would be $9,140.00. Should the PA break above the $9,620, this would signal a buy in this region with a potential upside target of $9,980.00. Currently the formation favors a bearish bias.
@RocketBomb, thanks for sharing your ideas. I appreciate it. I think it takes a tremendous amount of courage for an individual to place themselves and their ideas into the public arena for scrutiny, and I admire everyone who is willing to do that. I think it’s why Teddy Roosevelt’s “Man in the Arena” resonates so much with me.
I just finished publishing my latest idea about an hour ago and would say we have decidedly different opinions on Bitcoin and its current trend. I think the largest reason why is we are looking at the same info, but from the perspective of two different types of charts – you are using traditional candlestick and I am using Point & Figure with a three box reversal.
Here is the same basic time frame in Point & Figure with a three-box reversal:
When you compare the two at a macro level, on the Point & Figure chart we see three distinct lower highs which do not appear on the traditional candlestick. One of the reasons I prefer to use Point and Figure is because it filters out a ton of noise when the parameters are set properly (box size and reversal). I also find it to be incredibly accurate with target prices as well.
My own experience has led me to the opinion that combining Point & Figure with the Wyckoff Method is incredibly powerful and what works best for me. If you’d like some resources on the two, I’d be happy to shoot some over for you to check out. I was just recently given some Gann Analysis resources from another trader and I’ve never used Gann before. That being said I’m always fascinated to learn more.
Brain_haddin
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Nice job
Valeriia_Top
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wow))
AboveDuality
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Diagonal resistance still playing it's role, however i found we a facing a big horizontals on weekly basis too
FOFAgent1
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@AboveDuality, Interesting. I've never used Gann before and I appreciate getting a different perspective with a different method. Thanks for sharing. Would you happen to have some resources on Gann I could check out?
It would appear we have some alignment about the resistance level with my 15M Intraday (which I did not share earlier).
It appears we bounced off the trend line support at $8,900, and we appear to be working on breaking through to flip to bearish bias and more down.
AboveDuality
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@FOFAgent1, gann with other confirmation tools is very powerful. Gives clear S/R levels, but which will be respected only experience and confirmation indi will tell! Sure there's a lot free reading in the net!