Bitcoin triangles -- no ATH for a few weeks

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
517 7 9
Bitcoin             likes to consolidate in triangles big and small in reaction to aggressive moves in either direction. Triangles are continuation patterns, and thus tend to break out in the direction they were entered.

Hint: You can identify which direction the triangle was entered from based on the strength/weakness that precedes the movement that forms the base of the triangle and how it fits into the encapsulating trend.

In this case, the direction seems clearly up, though we can't be certain yet that a triangle is forming. It seems likely though.
Komen: Well, learning experience here. This turned out to be a symmetric triangle, which can break both ways. It may have broken up had it not been for the BTCe FUD, but the point is in most cases it's probably wise to de-risk when in a triangle or just scalp from the extremes.
What do you think will happen come Aug 1st? We know there is no Bitcoin split (or close to zero chances), but with BCC becoming easier to fork do you think BTC price will drop after ppl get a hold of their BCC?
What criteria are used to identify a triangle *while* it's forming? It's easy to spot them after the fact, but what about during the formation? How should we know when/where to draw the lines?

+1 Balas
@Jraz1, Look for decreasing volume.
+1 Balas
Interesting. Do you have statistical evedence corroborating your direction claim? What I am interested in is the probability or percentage ratio examining how often a triangle continues in the direction it was entered. Is it 60%? 70%? 80% of the time?
+1 Balas
Jraz1 phil.steuerwald
A good question and an interesting theory ^. I'd like to see the stats too.
WeGotCactus phil.steuerwald
@phil.steuerwald, No idea. Not sure how you'd get this statistic either. Have to apply some subjective judgment IMO by looking at it through the lens of things like Wyckoff and price/volume.
thanks for the analysis. It helps.
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