Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the weekly BTC chart, you can see that we've been consolidating for around three months now, as price has chopped around inside of this triangle formation. There has been a lot of speculation among analysts in the community, with regards to which direction this pattern could break, but the truth is, nobody knows if it will break up or down until it actually happens.
However, we can assess the past history of BTC to try to understand what the most likely outcome will be. Based on the history of BTC, in the early stages of prior bull markets, there has always been a 150-300% rally to the upside, followed by a pennant-type consolidation, essentially forming a bull flag. So, with that understanding, I know that this formation fits those characteristics of the early stages of prior bull markets.
When I step back and look at this formation on the weekly chart, I can clearly see that it's a huge bull flag. That doesn't mean that it's guaranteed to break to the upside. But, it is le bull flag nonetheless. So, if we assess this formation as a bull flag, we can see that there was a clear flag pole, and now we're in a pennant shaped consolidation. Much like the prior bull markets, the bottom of this pennant is resting right on top of the 21 week moving average (in orange,) which is the same moving average that was held in the beginning of every prior bull market. So, it looks like the 21 week MA may be the catalyst that finally causes the bull flag to breakout to the upside. When we project a target out from the bull flag, we can see that it's essentially right at the all time high. So, the takeaway here is that I think there is a strong technical possibility that BTC will test the all time high, if we see a bullish breakout from this bull flag, and particularly if we see a hold of the 21 MA on a weekly basis. It those conditions aren't met, I think things could get very nasty in the market. As I've said before, this is the ultimate test for a confirmation of a sustainable long-term bull market in Bitcoin. Personally, I think there is a much higher probability that BTC will hold and head higher, as opposed to the probability that it will return to the downside. Regardless, we will know soon enough when BTC holds or fails at the 21 week MA.
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I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
@MagicPoopCannon , Dear friend, sorry for writing you this, but you are wrong with your TA. Let me explain. In this market, there are no bullish flags. This pattern is a pennant. It ishould be the simplest mistake for a such master)
Just for your notes. It will be cool if you correct your title and text, just in order not to confuse novice traders.
You said its going up and now its down hell. you dont know what the fuck you are doing man
WorldEconomics
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Those flag formations are never a guarantee of a bull run. The same formation happened September of 2018, and the price crashed to $3,000
DILHOL3
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@BankofEngland, He literally said “it’s not guaranteed”. You didn’t even read it (facepalm)
WorldEconomics
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@DILHOL3, Except is usually is. 90% of all these charts are showing the price exploding towards mars with unrealistic targets like $20,000-$50,000 without rhyme or reason. The reason Bitcoin shot up to $19,800 was because it gained MASSIVE coverage in the media. Then CME Group listed it on the market (which was probably the biggest reason). Lastly, Bitcoin went from being traded on almost any exchange world wide. So, whats pushing it up now?
Just for your notes. It will be cool if you correct your title and text, just in order not to confuse novice traders.
How to draw the pennant, you can see in my post