I think it's possible BTCUSD might have ended it's 2 year bull market, and now entering a correction/consolidation phase. I'd expect some altcoins to fare well, so I will try to outperform BTCUSD strategically shorting when needed, and holding exposure to select altcoins in my portfolio. I have reduced my crypto account size to be a mere 25% of my net worth in December 14, anticipating this outcome. For now, entering shorts can be done on retrace, if it happens tomorrow, but, it is risky, since calling the top in this type of enviroment is always hard. I'd rather focus on reducing exposure and holding altcoins with the rest, and using shorts sporadically with low risk per trade (1% max, tight stops). As a sidenote, it seems like the main mineable coins are not going to fare well, LTC, BTC, XMR maybe, DASH, BCH, all look frail in their dollar charts, with ETH and NEO looking much better, or even ZEC, ETC, and a few more.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
PS: Sell Ripple, it's a scam. The top target zone I had outlined was 2.4-2.8, and it was already hit. Not worth holding on to it.
Komen
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BTCUSD chart implies we can get a 65% crash, interestingly this is what I had anticipated by copying the 2013 top pattern and subsequent consolidation, but adjusting it to today's volatility Contuining to guess, we could see a rally to $75000 per BTC.
In the short term, BTC is moving too fast up, the inside bar today is not too good for a bear case, but I'm still not comfortable owning BTC. If we don't go straight down, I severely doubt we go any higher either, maybe just sideways.
Either way, the short trade had a stop loss that can be hit, and if so, would take us out for a 1% loss. -Not a huge deal-
Meanwhile the coins we hold off exchange have grown both in BTC and in USD value, so it's a win win for now. With some luck BTC doesn't outperform the portfolio.
Komen
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Daily uptrend signal forming in BTCUSD After this pans out, we could either go sideways for months, or break the ATH, culminating in a top by May/June. Chances are we saw the long term bottom in BTC already, from the last peak at least.
Komen
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I'm reducing my crypto account size to 25% of net worth, BTCUSD is failing to meet a target here, which is a negative signal. Fund equities account with 75% of your funds and hold spot BTC, as an insurance for exposure to traditional finance
Komen
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We had added to the account recently, with the lowest entry at 6500. We also took some margin longs that we closed yesterday.
are we going down again ? noooo, i will keep mine til 22k, but this downtrend will kill me :D
IvanLabrie
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@farshadjahanmanesh, you could hold if you have long term conviction, but keep an amount that lets you tolerate the downside before the next rally starts. Be ready to add if price bottoms 65% lower than the top. I would add cash to buy BTC once a bottom is clearly established.