ok, red 4 does look like a triangle! i should have realised this sideways action was/is a triangle. note each leg is being retraced by 61.8%. a triangle is usually the pattern before the final leg! so thats a good warning to traders. wave red 5 is to be expected and a correction of larger degree will start.
red 5 targets estimated at 24500 (unless red 5 extends ~31K)
longer term... the 423.6% ratio seems to be important. see the cycle I. if history repeats we should top at the red line (depending on where primary 3 and primary 4 end of course)
I feel sorry for you. You do good work but your timing has been off last 6 months or so. Just one month ago you were posting bearish chart after chart. It really looks like those charts should have come now. sub 10k seems very likely. given that you seem to be a bit ahead time wise I think this current prediction may very well come true but perhaps with a bit of a push in time. Maybe we see 100k 2019 or 2020 ish..
user100000
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@Johnsdad, i was using the cycle I to give me an estimated duration for cycle III... by july 2018 > 100K
if this is wave 4 triangle then we should expect a thrust in the direction of the main trend once it ends (red 5). this is how market behave
funtoo
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price currently in free fall mode. Don't you think your idea is invalidated by now? the channel also seems to be broken by now
user100000
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@funtoo, the triangle idea is invalidated only if market moves lower than wave a. so far, we can still call it a triangle and wave c is in progress or over
the channel is meaningless in elliott wave analysis because it is adjusted to accommodate any extra sideways move wave 4 is making... eg wave e may appear to break the trend but that is a false break since we know what comes after red 4
funtoo
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@user100000, thanks for the explaination. a happy new year to you (a little bit in advance)! this move would somehow fit the overall 2017 bitcoin picture. most of the time the market made moves that were unexpected, the current overall sentiment is a crash to 8-10k so people begin to short right now and they will get hit hard when the market makes a fast u-turn. at least this is my impression. i mean who expected bitcoin to reach nearly 20k in 2017?
funtoo
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okay you expected more back in 2016 ;) -
user100000
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@funtoo, anything could be possible but now we have more data to work with by counting the actual waves. primary (circle) 3 should end at 24-25K (ill update once the triangle is complete)
at the time that was just a guess since there was no data to work with. i was just mainly showing there is a cycle III coming! somehow people didn't even consider this a possibility
user100000
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@funtoo, happy new year to you too..... shorting a triangle is not wise because when it ends we get a thrust in the direction of the main trend
funtoo
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i mean ideas like this
user100000
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@funtoo, everyone counts waves differently i just try to analyse the market my way.
in my daily chart, i only see waves 1,2,3 complete and currently wave 4 is unfolding. i have to go with what i see. that's all one can do.