In the words of Alan Greenspan, you know the rumpled old geezer that speaks in rhymes, said something about irrational exuberance in the markets, I will invoke those same words. BEWARE OF IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE in the bitcoin market.
What's causing this straight up spike in price? The China devaluation of the Yuan, the India currency confiscation, and here's a new one, the Brazil distrust and ejection of big government communists, have all laid a foundation of Bitcoin price support. It didn't hurt that Trump got elected, that the dark cloud of illegal immigration in Europe is causing a nationalistic resurgence, that Italian and other Euro banks are failing. These are all fundamental strengths. But what has taken place in the last 3 weeks in Bitcoin, a 50% gain, cannot go on forever. This is a classical setup to a blow off top. The Yuan is at a 6 year low relative to the dollar. This will not last. The cost to China industry for raw imports like coal and oil will be through the roof. China will move into recession/depression. Civil unrest there will emerge as jobs dry up from industry contraction. The Chinese government needs to stop the Yuan devaluation to preserve its control over the population.
NOTHING GOES STRAIGHT UP IN VALUE FOREVER. There will be an end, and it will be dramatic.
I kind of think that the big boys are looking to touch an all time high and then take profits faster than you can say WTF. What kind of evidence do I have? NONE. It's just a gut feel. So, I have loosely defined the top. Where's the bottom? There is solid support at $750.
My advice. Take down incremental profit into this rally. Don't sell everything because we don't know where the top actually is and we're nearing uncharted territory as far as the technical tools. Just take down the profit you feel you don't deserve. When the market drops down to rational support, re-invest the profit.
If the scenario plays out, the technical pattern will be a GIANT cup with handle formation. A breakout from the cup will have an approximate $2000 target. When? The cup is three years long. It could take another year for the beginning of a breakout. So, maybe, 2 years for a target. I'm still sticking to my $750 by mid February prediction although if the pullback shows signs of support at $950, I'll gladly raise my expectations.
Current rally on BTCCNY market is in decreasing volume. This is a very weak rally and I expect it to be near the end. Still looking at $750 by mid-February. There is a lot of commotion with Chinese banking regulators taking a look at BTC exchange practices in China. This is causing the up and down action based on substantiated fear and unsubstantiated relief of actions to be taken by the PBOC, Chinese banking regulators. Seems they have woken up to the fact that there are insiders trading on anticipated Yuan devaluations. The devaluation episodes have ended and profit taking is the downward pressure on BTC value.
bysteven
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@investigator, dude you are good. It happened exactly as you predicted, chapeau!
investigator
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I misstated support. It's really in a range from $700 to $750. We touched and bounced out. Since there is a month to go before mid February, I expect to be range bound with wedge action towards $750.
I hear Trump likes golden showers. Watch out if you see him smoking a wet cigar. BJ Clinton has a box full. Maybe he'll share. Monica should sell her dress to the Hard Rock so they can put it on display under fluorescence right next to Bill's Saxophone. What a clown show! Time to build a firewall and make the Russians pay for it.
investigator
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I should have named this segment "We're going to Hades" but I bet half the audience thinks that's in the Caribbean. The launch to MARS is on hold pending a refueling glitch. Kind of like SpaceX only less explosive.
investigator
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The Chinese BTC investors caught on that the party''s over within hours of my previous comment. The Bank of China is stepping in big time. There is also new PANIC in Mexico as the Peso is going through the same devaluation. The Mexican central bank has stepped in and sold massive amounts of paper silver and used the proceeds to buy Peso. This caused a $0.20 flash crash in silver. The Trump effect on the USD strength may be over soon. This will help stabilize BTCUSD value. BTC is definitely headed to test support at $750.
investigator
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Evidence of efforts by the Bank of China to stop the drop in Yuan value vs USD. Essentially the BOC actions are not large enough to dent the Chinese investor's appetite for BTC. Keep an eye on the success of this new round of China central bank currency manipulation. The Chinese government is in full PANIC mode. Welcome to THE PANIC ZONE China. Complete failure will send BTC to JUPITER. MARS will be just a bus stop.