botje11
Singkat

Bitcoin will drop 25% coming days?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
This is one scary picture, i know, but even if it comes true it's nothing special, only 25% correction. Nothing Bitcoin             could ot overcome within 2 days again :).
This picture confirmes what i had mentioned in my previous 2 analysis on Bitcoin             , the moves are getting bigger and faster. That is normally what should happen in a wedge . Desperate moves, up and down, with lower volume!.
Normally it should drop downwards and most times it makes a retrace back to the former support zone , but the Bitcoin             usually makes a retraces that gets to high, like in this chart. No guarnatee ofcourse, but i give that option 75% chance, because there is still a lot of greed in this market.
The target of this pattern is about 9000. Depending on how strong the corrections up will be, i will maybe adjust that target.

Before dropping under that support line, it could stay in this channel en make a higher high, trying to break the 12.000. So this trade, for me, will be with a smaller ammount than normal because my target is about 2.500 points, but my stop will be about 400/500 points higher. I will probably add when it drops below 11.500. Under 11.200 i see the first big support. Under this level i will add again. But if it gets here i will put my stop lower while i increase my position. So the risks don't get higher than the initial trade.

Bitcoin             has already had many surprises up it's sleeve this year, so always be aware adjust when needed!

Komen: There is just no volume at all, no real buying, and no real selling here. It gets sold a 100 points or so, but than with the smallest buy orders it goes sideways again. Accordig to the pattern, it seems like a distribution phase (on a smaller timer frame). The bigger volumes on the small time frame are almost all selling volume. I see a few normal buy orders. Every half our you see a few buy orders of 5+ BTC, the rest are all small orders. The sell orders i see much more often 5+ BTC orders.

For me it says the following:

This looks like a distribution fase, where smart money is trying to get out for the highest prices without pushing the market down to soon. Because of all the (relative) small buy orders, it seems like the average Joe is getting into this "free money without limit" market. As long as this buying keeps coming, it won't make a big drop.
To be clear, at first i am only talking about a short term drop, not that an extreme crash will appear. It could be possible ofcourse, but my guess is, after a big drop it will get bought again and will probably make a new ATH. I told the same a week ago
As long as there will be buyers who are prepared to pay the highest prices, they will do this dance over and over again! Because exactly this is free money for the 'smart money'in this market.
Think about all the big corrections the last few months, followed by an extreme up spike. Not giving the average Joe a real chance to even get into this market for a good price, and probably pushing most out of it who are using leverage.

Untill the CME Future market enters this world, than even the crypto believers will also start to learn what smart money is. Because these markets will get manipulated even more. The bigger this market gets, the more difficult it can be controlled, so therefore i don't think prices of 100K what some people believe in, will ever be seen.
Komen:

The first signs of weakness,but it is still within the bigger pattern, so without a big spike down with high volume, this all could still be seen as a consolidation to push it higher eventually, towards the 12K
Komen: This was something remarkable, for almost 20 minutes on Bitfinex, there was a fight going on at excactley 11.650. All of a sudden there were some bigger orders getting in. Several times there was a sell order of 100 BTC in the sell, like when it did not get any support (follow through) it would dissapear again. several times. After almost 15 min, when the sellers were loosing, because it was getting bought with some volume, even a 50BTC buy order, It was like they gave up.

And than all of a sudden, after a minute or so, there was a big sell order on Bitstamp pushing it down 100 points at once. It went up almost just as fast.

But i got this feeling, like someone was trying to push the market down, it did not work on Bitfinex, so after 15 min they gave up, and within a minute they tried to do it on Bitstamp. It could all be a coincidence ofcourse, but i dont think so. I am wachting the orders books more closely lately, because i want to see if there's some sort of pattern at certain times.
Komen: I have added at 11840

Komen:

I was afraid of this, so close already to the 12K level, i was afraid they would not let this opportunity go. But it also offers a chance to add to the position. That's why i said from the beginning, a smaller position for a bigger move, but also because of this. It should get above the red area, at least not close above it on the hourly chart
Komen: I mean it should NOT get above the red area :)
Komen: I have added at 12080, and will add at 12.150 again. Overall stop at at 12.300
Komen: And that was loosing trade. There is just still so much greed in this market, unbelieveble. But it is as it is. For now it's impossible to predict what it will do. I am going to wait for new info and stay out of this market for at least a day.
Komen: According to the pattern, with the outbreak on the upside, 14.200/14.500 should be possible, in normally short term. I am still on the side line
Komen: It's almost there. But this is just sick, pure greed at it's best. Donkeys running after each other. Only a month ago, there was talk that BCH would overtake BTC, now it's almost trippeld :). Just insanity this, I am amazed. I knew it would get pushed higher again, But not like this, 2000 points in a few hours. On the other hand, what better advertisement is there than this extreme and fast pump. I really want to short it now, but i am sitting on my hands :). Around 14.500, if it gets there, i will (probably :))
Komen: Iam shorting it at 13810, stop 14.010. Just a short trade, for a spike down
Komen: it's hanging, lowered stop to 13860, for a minimum loss
Komen: And out again, it was worth the try. Probably push through 14K now
Komen: I am back in at 13785
Komen:

First small sign of weakness (all day LOL)
Komen: Getting out again at 13875.
Difference between Bitstamp and Bitfnex is more than 200 points. Weakness or strenght?
Komen:

Above 14K espect at least 14.500. But buying volume has decreased very hard the last hour. Sign of weakness. I think buyers are waiting for another drop to buy in hard again!
Komen: Moment of truth, 13600 is a big resistance now, if it cnt push trough, another drop will come
Komen:
not looking good, second attempt seems to be falling short. Under 13400 wil confirm another drop
Komen: This website is overloaded or something. Perfect buy moment now. 13600 should be a support

Komen: Target should be 14.150/14.200. But i am missing buying volume, the same as before that drop happened. So that's a major risk now. If it will get close to 14K, than it's almost guaranteed it will break through, The chart below is from Bitstamp, volume is missing here even more
Komen: Like Timbaland said,
Is it going? Is it going
Is it going? Is it going
I don't know what you're looking for
Komen: Just to easy sometimes. There were almost 700 in the sell order at 14.000, when it dropped to almost 500, they all got cancelled. I saw the same (shit) yesterday at at the 12K. Than i was on the wrong side of it. Wont let it happed twice. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me LOL :)
Komen: Its getting risky now, should have pushed higher easier. I am gettinng out now. Higher is possible, but i am not waiting for it anymore
Komen: What a rollercoaster, insanity! On Bitmex price got to almost 17.800. Just says enough, people are getting absolutely mad now!
15.800 is an important support now!

Komen: I am gonna try a short at 15900, i find it very strange that Bitstamp just doesn't want to go higher. Yesterday it was the other way around. Buying volume is decreasing a bit, like no one really dares to be the first big buyer to push through 16K
Komen:
Because of the upside outbreak of this pattern, it will probably go to 17.200
Komen: It cant get any stronger than this, bouncong of the previous highs

Komen: Looking real good now, almost 1000+ points profit again. I really am curious if it will reach that green area, or it they will support it again as they have done a million times already. If so, i will close it earlier, fingers on the trigger :)
Komen: I just knew it, they would just spike the hell out of it again. Thats why putting in an order before is important with these crypto's! And it bounced right from that green area :). I did not go long (unfortunately). Just moves to fast.

Komen:
This is the even bigger H&S i was talking about, I dont know if it will happen, but i will trade on it. I will enter it between 15.200 and 15.600!.

It has amazed me many times when it was going up, maybe it's the first time it will amaze me going down. Stop is around 15.800
Komen: Oh crap again, i only got the first 25% in again at 15200. BTC just doesn't work with my script LOL :)
Komen: If it stays under 15K, than expect somewhere in the 11K area
Komen:

Maybe it's this one :) LOL
Komen: Its all there now, average 15320. Stop around 15.700
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if it drops 25% now we could be looking at a drop clear to 14-15k
Balas
ha-ha-ha
+2 Balas
nope, it will never go below 12500 again, it will be 15k by today, 20K by Monday, 50K by next Friday with never more than a 200$ drop along the way
Balas
botje11 rlreecer
@rlreecer,
I hope so for you, but please be a bit more realistic. If you have 100K, 500K or much much more, you would really just ride it out? There are enough poeple with not only a few hundred of thousand dollars in this market. These big drops it can make, are very scary to just sit on your hands an do nothing if you have a big position. As for now, it looks very strong and nothing can stop it. This market will get manipulated (even more), only question is when.
Balas
rlreecer botje11
@botje11, i was pretty damn realistic, right?
Balas
rlreecer botje11
@botje11, need to make the top of your chart WAY bigger
Balas
rlreecer botje11
@botje11, except the 50k is tomorrow instead of next fri now
Balas
botje11 rlreecer
@rlreecer,
hahaha yes it is now :), but 50K is just insane, no extremes before the CME futures enter this market. BUT, it has amazed me so far, so everything is possible. For me it does not matter, i only do short trades on Bitcoin. But what i meant with realistic, your drops of less than 200, that's just not possible. 20K was also not realistic for me, but not anymore :). I hope the best for you
Balas
It's gone past already. Wrong idea :)
+1 Balas
@red32,
Yes this trade was a loosing trade. I act on patterns i see, in combination with the lower volume and the small buy orders, i knew it could still get to 12K or a bit higher but after seeing that a correction would come. But i was wrong
Balas
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