Just a reminder that a head and shoulders pattern does almost never come in its purest form. The idea behind the head and shoulders pattern is that the right shoulder does not reach the top. There can be more than 1 right shoulder and a fake breakout before the real breakout. Up till now we have not seen the right shoulder going higher than the left shoulder. But we see declining volume for the head compared to the left shoulder and a sharp rising volume on the downswing from the head. Overall volume is declining on upwards movements and momentum does not confirm upswing in price as indicated by the 3/10 MACD in the chart.
Evidence that suggests we don't see head and shoulders pattern here is that the downswing from the head was not stopped on the neckline but went much lower. On the other hand that was only intraday and looking at the closing prices of either 4h or daily candles the neckline hold. Target for a head and shoulders formation would be around 5k USD after a breakout to the downside, possibly with a pullback to the neckline. NO break = no head and shoulders pattern. In that case upside potential = moon. 50:50 right now.
Evidence that suggests we don't see head and shoulders pattern here is that the downswing from the head was not stopped on the neckline but went much lower. On the other hand that was only intraday and looking at the closing prices of either 4h or daily candles the neckline hold. Target for a head and shoulders formation would be around 5k USD after a breakout to the downside, possibly with a pullback to the neckline. NO break = no head and shoulders pattern. In that case upside potential = moon. 50:50 right now.
Komen:
Bitmex funding rates are maxed out at 1% per day. Bears switched and turned into bulls over the past 24 hours. This is consistent with the direction of the trend and confirms the upward movement.