I'm amazed at the how people trade on Hope and not the charts. You would think after all the hype running up to the fork that the announcement would be a crushing blow to BTC'. Many trade on feelings and emotions when the market has clearly gone elsewhere. Just look at the gains in the past couple of days for BTC's largest competitor BCH', LTC' or DASH'. Yes these coins COMPETE directly with BTC'. But some are so emotionally attached to BTC' they cannot let go. What do I mean by that? I took a look at the B2X futures this morning and to my surprise they are up trading at $540! Are you kidding me? Did they not get the memo? Is the rumor the fork is happening anyways really true? Is this part of a broader conspiracy for those in control to just reach into the pockets of us average joe's and clean us out by releasing a headline tomorrow the fork is back on? Yes there was a report of a rogue forking going to happen, but seriously $540?
Now I want to be clear as all get out, I AM NOT TELLING YOU TO SELL BTC'! But what we have is the final leg of an extended top in my opinion. I still do not like the count that has us in a wave 5 from a wave 4 in Sept, so I'm sticking with the bubble top, and the fact that people still feel that somehow B2X is going to be worth anything is beyond me. If they do come out and announce the fork is back on, I think this will do more damage then good. People will lose faith in the currency. They will feel that the powers that be are manipulating as much or even more than the central banks. I do not see it happening but you never know.
The 3.618 extension from wave "w" (the small w) is almost exactly where we peaked! $7835. Coincidence? Maybe, but not to me. What seemed highly unlikely only a couple of days ago is now more likely, but as my buddy MarcPmarkets mentioned in his latest chart, there needs to be a catalysts. Well the catalysts may just be the final realization for some that the fork is dead! I have labeled the extended top which has almost to the numbers hit the Fibb levels expected. In my opinion we just completed the 5th wave of this extension or bubble as we posted a comparison to the bio tech bubble. But bio tech just isn't as emotionally attaching as Bitcoin. Bitcoin is for many their baby! Yes I like Amgen but it does not have the same feel. So it could be expected that this is just a blow off of bubbles like non before. After all this is the greatest thing to currency since the chinese came up with bank notes 600 years ago.
The first correction is the short term (v) correction which it appears we are hitting. We will likely see a bounce back from this, but the overall bubble correction levels are labeled in blue and I feel we see those sooner than later. Maybe at the date Segwit2x was supposed to happen. But we still have that longer term correction cycle I have spoken about and at this point it almost lines up perfectly with wave "W" the large one. Typical ABC' long term correction. But first we must break the channel, once this is broken we can look for a pullback to the $4855-$6000 range. This could be all she wrote but a breakdown through $4855 puts $3200 in play and at that point I will be backing up the truck.
Market corrections are not only healthy but necessary for equities to move higher. Once we correct I assume as long as the mining pools don't screw it up, we head higher from there. 10k-11k is definitely a valid target point. We have been in a rotation not bull, and the rotation is now out of BTC'.
So what looked like a free meal may be the final start to the correction we have anticipated. Does it happen. Well nobody knows for sure, after all it is Bitcoin. And though I would not be opening any long positions here, I would not be shorting it either. Many fell into the fomo and instead of eating steak with a fork, they may end up sipping soup from a spoon!
Dian I hope I have enough fibb up there ;)
Komen
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Just one clarification the large III should be at the top of the chart. Sorry!
"Trade on hope not charts" The only thing is if I would have traded off your charts I would have shorted at 3k. Your posts are by far the most thorough and detailed of the Traders I follow, but you've also been the most inaccurate.
@dmoe05, I'm not sure you would have shorted at $3000, one of my first posts called for a pullback to $2985 which we got. And then looked for a pullback at $4400. That never happened and I admit we did not get the other pullbacks we were looking at, but we did post go long at $4750 for $6000 and go long at $6250 for $7000. So I'm not sure we have been totally inaccurate. And this is only one coin and it has definitely defied gravity ;).
Thank you for the comment, and keep in mind NEVER SHORT BITCOIN! ;)
dmoe05
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@goldbug1, I respect you putting your opinions and charts out there and face humility when wrong, no one is right all the time. I still come and look at your analysis so I find it intriguing.
goldbug1
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@dmoe05, Thank you, BTC has been a thorn in TA for sure.
TAneophyte
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Well the number of followers speak for themselves. So the 'most' inaccurate tag is kinda misleading. Goldbug1 hasn't made a lot of trades compared with the others, just look at the contents of his posts and not just the 'short' 'long' tags to assume they're all trades. I've followed trades also from the other top authors. And their posts on trades are all more or less very helpful and serve as an important confirmation (for me) and are highly accurate many a times..
TAneophyte
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@goldbug1 and i just wish to say thank you for the time and effort spent to produce these analysis and detailed posts with so much thought into them! And for free! God bless you!
goldbug1
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@TAneophyte, Thank you for the kind words, yes I do not trade volatile markets and have posted few trades other than DASH and BCH. God Bless you as well!!
Ralebr
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Goldbug1, could you analyse LTC? It is rising now...