orbsatchel
Singkat

UGLY PATTERNS ON BTC

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
All the big forecasters got BTC             direction WRONG lately. I got spooked and got short BTC             at resistance on a hunch via DGD             and still got smoked!


These are common patterns: DOUBLE TOP AND HEAD AND SHOULDERS . One after the other...

Before it was looking like a double top after a double top was playing out...


WHERE ARE WE GOING? -down it seems.

A break through the 7,800 Fibonacci level and then a solid rally back above that line would be fine. DO we need to go to 6k or 4,800? Probably not.


SO MUCH FUD AND BAD NEWS IN THE AIR PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO LOSE HOPE> when you start hearing is Bitcoin             dead forever usually is the best time to buy when you look back.
At least that has been true with every other asset class in the world: gold             , stocks, bonds, real estate, ect.

I am not saying that the bear market is over forever just that people seem to be getting carried away with the forecasts and they seem to be the same people saying 15-22k BTC             by march-april, which, still might happen but we need to look at closer targets.

In summation. We are due for a relief rally. A bounce off something that makes sense like a fib level the computers and traders can lock onto and get comfortable again. To me it seems the rally was moving too fast and we needed to let off some steam. A bounce from 7 to 10k seems reasonable.


One thing is that this is a PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS. These are the trickiest because no one knows the future. NO ONE! I usually don't do these bc             I have no idea what is going to happen but I like to choose things closer and work from there.

In the words of Bill Hicks, " If you think you can fly don't jump off the top of a building, try from the ground first..."




Predictive Analytics, which use statistical models and forecasts techniques to understand the future and answer: “What could happen?”


Komen: Sometimes the shoulder happens just as it is drawn. Next stop 7,700?
Komen: There we are a bounce right around the Fib level. Unfortunately there were no signs of a bottom. ie. volume and despair. Looks like lower from here. Maybe magicpoopcannon is right. For now though lets looks at 7000 as the next stop. We should get a nice rally here to sucker a bunch of new money into the pit over today and tomorrow though. Friday afternoon USA time could get UGLY. and then a slow bleed with low volume for the weekend. DGD is popping I am a buyer around the larger moving average on the 30 minute chart andif you can get on the hour chart buy buy buy
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